Oh my? The strong performance by Democrats Tuesday is an inversion of a historical pattern in which Democrats do far worse in off-year elections. Of course, the results are a good thing in and of themselves. But I do wonder how predictive these results will be for the 2024 elections. I think the demographic shifts in the electorate mean that Republicans are now more reliant on less likely voters than they used to be (and the converse for Democrats), so 2024 might not be as good for Democrats as 2023 would suggest–though, as always, it beats getting clobbered.

Just a weird turn of events for people who follow this stuff.