Category Archives: Polling

Faith in Polls Not Seen

One of the weird things about the electability debate in the Democratic primary is that it seems utterly divorced from polling data. In particular, the argument is that Sanders can’t win, even though polls have him as competitive, if not … Continue reading

Posted in Democrats, Polling

Most People Have No Idea What Basic Political Terms Mean

I realize this probably isn’t news to anyone who teaches political science, but these two tables from a widely distributed NBC poll amuse me: If this is to be believed, twenty percent of Americans think Sanders is too conservative. That … Continue reading

Posted in Democrats, Polling | 3 Comments

The Outlier Poll that Won’t Die

I know I’ve been beating this like a drum, but that damn April Emerson poll keeps rearing its godawful ugly ass head. For those who don’t know what I’m referring to (probably a mark in your favor), in April, Emerson … Continue reading

Posted in Democrats, Fucking Morons, Polling | 2 Comments

How to Use Polling Data for Gaslighting Clickbait

Consider this part of our ongoing series in how not to use polling data. This head-explodey tweet came across the transom recently: For the third week in a row, The Economist/YouGov polling shows that the share of Democratic primary voters … Continue reading

Posted in Democrats, Polling, Statistics

Revisiting Misadventures in Interpreting Democratic Primary Polling Data (LIZLADS ARE THE WORST)

Since we’re discussing the Democratic primaries, I’ll began with my typical disclosure that, were I voting today, I would vote Warren. A month ago, Emerson Polling released a poll, which led to wailing and gnashing of teeth in certain quarters: … Continue reading

Posted in Democrats, Polling, Statistics

When Standard ‘Pundit Talks To Pals’ Behavior Is Gussied Up With Numbers

Et tu, 538? One of the long-standing problems in political punditry is when pundits consider the group of people they know, a group which is almost always completely unrepresentative of the phenomenon they’re discussed, as a representative sample. Seth Masket, … Continue reading

Posted in Democrats, Polling, Statistics

Democratic Primary Voters Who Have No Intention Of Voting For The Democrat In The General

Even if their favorite Democrat wins. Or maybe it’s just crap data. There’s a poll that was released with very small sample sizes, but which also had some interesting tidbits, so it was pushed far and wide because it made … Continue reading

Posted in Polling | 3 Comments