Mike the Mad Biologist

Because it seems like the D.C. Council and some Initiative 83 (ranked choice voting) supporters really screwed the pooch. The Washington Sun explains (boldface mine):

The mathematical friction stems from a unique structural feature of D.C. governance. Under the 1973 Home Rule Act, Congress mandated that two of the D.C. Council’s four at-large seats be reserved for non-majority party members. To adhere to that law, the District combines a two-seat contest into a single ranked race rather than holding separate elections.

Under D.C.’s vote-counting rules, candidates with the lowest totals are eliminated round by round, transferring their ballots to lower-ranked choices until two candidates remain standing. But those vote transfers only happen for voters whose initial choices get knocked out. If a frontrunner stays in the lead and wins the first seat, those ballots freeze — leaving the second seat to be decided without those voters’ input.

In heavily Democratic D.C., that system creates a unique political headache. The Democratic at-large nominee, Oye Owolewa, is widely expected to draw a dominant share of first-choice votes. Because those ballots stay locked with Owolewa throughout tabulation, Democratic voters who rank him first effectively surrender their say in deciding which candidate wins the second open seat.

This dynamic has shattered traditional campaign playbooks. In previous elections, voters could easily split their two selections between a Democrat and an independent candidate. Now, because a top-choice vote for a frontrunner swallows down-ballot power, candidates are locked into a zero-sum fight for the top spot.

Independent incumbent Elissa Silverman has shifted her strategy to explicitly warn supporters that ranking the Democratic nominee first invalidates their vote for her, urging them instead to “Rank Elissa #1.” Owolewa, meanwhile, is leaning into the city’s deep-blue electorate, encouraging voters to lock in his victory by making him their first choice.

I can envision a scenario where Owolewa, the Democratic primary winner, gets the overwhelming majority of first rank votes–D.C. is a Democratic stronghold. I also can envision how a large majority of these voters could rank Silverman, a de facto Democrat who won the independent non-partisan primary, as second, out of inertia, habit, or even just the order on the ballot, because, in past elections, you just chose two candidates, no ranking. That could mean a large majority of Silverman’s votes would never be counted, even though the majority of voters chose her.

In other words, you could get something like this after the first rank votes are tallied:

• Owolewa: 80%–this would mean no second rank votes are counted
• Silverman: 7%
• Statehood-Green Party candidate: 4%
• Republican Party candidate: 9%

Given how D.C. counts ranked choice ballots, that would mean the Republican would win.

Of course, if people read My Mighty Blog, and then everyone ranks Silverman first (not likely, admittedly), then Owolewa could be screwed in the same way. While this is an absurd situation, it also is serious: many voters could be denied one of their two votes for At-Large Council members. This is a failure not only by our elected officials, but also by most news outlets who have not reported this, including The Washington Post.

It is bad enough that D.C. residents’ self-governance is under external assault by the forces of reaction and fascism, it should not be assailed by internal incompetence too.

*SWIDT?