Links 11/13/18

Trump_publichanging
Links for you. Science:

No, A Study Did Not Find That Cellphones Can Give You Cancer
I reviewed all 161 of GOOP’s wellness products for pseudoscience. Here’s what I found.
Graduate Student Solves Quantum Verification Problem
Closing the High Seas to Fishing Probably Won’t Hurt Global Food Security
Why are humans killing 100 million sharks every year?

Other:

A house divided
In Mexico City, good transit service matters more than new technology
NYT gets punked pursuing “both sides” and “Women for Trump”.
Stop blaming millennials for not voting. Blame America’s screwed-up system — and fix it!
‘I’ve never been so scared’: D.C. fire crews forced to serve on run-down rigs (it’s the mayor’s job to make sure things aren’t broken. Good job Bowser…)
Native Americans Aren’t Fighting For Democrats In North Dakota — They’re Fighting For Their Voice
Republicans Undertake Last-Minute Wave of Voter Suppression
The Trump Administration Flunked Its Math Homework
The White House’s Deceptive Pickup Truck Math
Max Boot Is Very Sorry for Backing the GOP and the Iraq Invasion. Why Is He Being Praised for This?
Stop pretending everything is okay
The Clash opened for the Who at Shea Stadium and they rented a 1959 Cadillac Eldorado convertible to take them there. I was driving my Rambler convertible next to them so Don Letts could shoot film of their trip and I took this photo
Why Do Candidates Ignore Mass Transit?
We now have a dollar value for one of oil’s biggest subsidies
Dutch People Are Dicks. Here’s Why Americans Should Try It.
The Mansion of the Kavanaughs
Tell Me It’s Going to be OK

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You Maintain Power By Using It

Alex Pareene, in a very good column about using and losing power, misses something important. Before we get to that, Pareene (boldface mine):

When Americans overwhelmingly voted to give Congress to the Democratic Party in 2006, party leaders had a reasonably ambitious agenda. Incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promised that the 110th Congress would be “the most honest and open Congress in history” and announced a “100-Hour Plan” to pass a slate of bills before the president even had a chance to deliver his State of the Union address.

The biggest enduring legacy of the plan would be raising the federal minimum wage to its current level, $7.25 per hour. But bills requiring Medicare to negotiate drug prices and cutting interest rates on student loans died in the Senate, even though Democrats controlled it, too. No matter: Democrats acted like they had all the time in the world to achieve their bolder goals, if they only waited out the lame-duck George W. Bush administration. After all, the theory went, demographics meant they were on the way to a permanent majority.

That majority would be over and done with in four years, halfway through the first term of a Democratic president elected with the largest share of the popular vote in a generation. The window closed. Republicans became an older, whiter and somehow much angrier coalition, and they used the serendipity of taking power in a census year to rig legislative maps wherever they could, to stay in power by any means necessary. Action and (sometimes brutal and rapid) reaction is the story of our era.

With Democrats about to control the House of Representatives again, I have been thinking about that last majority: what it achieved, what it was too cautious to attempt and what that caution actually bought. Because we may be asking the same questions about the next Democratic majority sooner than we think. The lesson of the careful restraint that Democrats showed the last time they controlled either chamber of Congress — and of the Republican ferocity since then — is simple: Your job is not to win power and then maintain it. Your job is to win power and then use it, with the knowledge that you won’t have it forever or even, most likely, for very long at all.

Everything Democrats pushed through between 2007 and 2011 was rendered less effective by their cautious impulses. This is not to say that better results would have been achievable if President Barack Obama or Democratic leaders had simply wanted them more or “pushed harder”; the limited political imaginations of centrist and moderate lawmakers, and of the party strategists looking forward to the next election, were to blame. Determined to slow things down to protect their majority, Democrats ended up losing that majority without addressing some of the most pressing problems the nation faced…

Here’s what Democrats didn’t even send to Obama’s desk: bills to reduce carbon emissions, or make voting easy and universal and secure, or grow union membership and support workers looking to organize. Obviously, there’s more they didn’t get to, but carbon emissions and union support were on the agenda until they were abandoned by skittish Democrats, and voting reform should’ve been part of every Democrat’s Day One platform since Nov. 8, 2000. We’ll face the consequences of their caution for years to come

But it was just backlash, period, to this new coalition, led by a black president, using its power in any way. The backlash would’ve raged across the country if the stimulus had been half the size and if Obamacare had no individual mandate. The political result would’ve been the same with a larger stimulus, a public option and a carbon tax, too, except that after the 2010 bloodbath, we’d have had Republicans in control of Congress and … a stronger economy, a public option and a carbon tax.

While Pareene is right, one thing Democrats need to do is to plan to make structural changes that make losing power harder, and make it harder for Republicans to change things once Republicans regain power, such as:

  1. Packing the federal courts (not just the Supreme Court). We have witnessed much of Il Trumpe’s agenda be stimied, so far anyway, by federal judges. Shifting the balance to Democratic* judges matters.
  2. Statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico. For D.C., it’s an absolute no-brainer: multiple referenda have overwhelmingly supported statehood, and there’s legislation in the can, ready to go. Puerto Rico is a little more complicated, as during the last referendum, independence supporters boycotted, but, still, those who wanted to remain U.S. citizens strongly supported statehood. This gets Democrats four Senate seats and seven House seats. The U.S. is in a very different place with four more Democratic senate seats.
  3. Union card check and other union-strengthening policies. It’s simple: white people who are in unions vote Democratic (yes, #NotAllUnions, especially internal security and some of the building trade unions on the East Coast). But overall, this is good policy and good politics. Republicans understand this, which is why they try to crush unions every chance they get.
  4. Campaign finance reform. This weakens the power of wealthy people relative to small donors and volunteers. Serious efforts in this area need to happen.
  5. Voting rights reform. We need to make it easier to vote and to spread the franchise (e.g., the reenfranchisement of former felons in Florida). Thanks to our criminal justice policies from 1980 on, multiple cohorts of black men are unable to vote. Restore their votes. We also need to make it easier, especially for younger, more mobile voters to participate. That includes both voting and registration, which is a mess.

This isn’t a comprehensive list, but it’s a start. Democrats, as Pareene notes, need to recognize they will lose power at some point, but they also need to make that harder, and easier to reverse when they do lose power. Enough of the Jed Bartlett-West Wing mentality. Deal with the world as it is.

*Let’s just dispense with the silliness that judges are ‘calling balls and strikes.’ They have morphed into what the nineteenth century Senate used to be: a de facto legislative body (with some weird constraints) that is elected by other parts of government.

Posted in Democrats, Resistance Rebellion And Death | Leave a comment

Links 11/12/18

Trump_badhairday
Links for you. Science:

My Grandfather Thought He Solved a Cosmic Mystery
Scientists may have found the key ingredient for a universal flu vaccine, and it comes from llamas
In America’s Science Classrooms, the Creep of Climate Skepticism
The Spanish flu killed quickly, and it killed in huge numbers. Other flu pandemics in modern times have been far less deadly. Why?
The EPA’s Climate Change Page Is Just Gone Now

Other:

The caravan “invasion” and America’s epistemic crisis (must-read)
U.S. Law Enforcement Failed to See the Threat of White Nationalism. Now They Don’t Know How to Stop It. (‘Thanks for that stuff on Al Qaeda, but what I really need to know is how to handle the Hammerskin population in my jurisdiction.’)
This group of lawmakers has a new plan to bring down insulin prices, and it takes clear aim at drug makers
Current And Former Chicago Police Officers Are Spewing Racist Hate On A Facebook Page
How Sears Was Gutted By Its Own CEO
Do We Really Need a Second Earned Income Tax Credit?
“Tech People Are the Last People I Would Trust to Regulate Speech”
Trump floats a new absurdity to support his latest hate narrative
Research on gun suicides shows: The enemy is inside the house
The CIA’s communications suffered a catastrophic compromise. It started in Iran.
Will The Republican Wing Of The Democratic Party Pick The Next Speaker?
My Jewish wedding was the day of the Pittsburgh shooting. Anti-Semites threatened it.
A Time To Compromise
Washington state lawmaker Matt Shea defends advocacy for ‘Holy Army’ as Spokane sheriff refers his writings to FBI
How many of Trump’s Redhats are law enforcement?
Bolsonaro’s election is catastrophic news for Brazil’s indigenous tribes
The old folks at home in the party of Trump

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The Left Is Still Misunderstanding How (Some) Racists Vote

At this point, I realize I’m having as much effect as shouting at clouds, but until the left, construed broadly, begins to understand that Democrats win 25% – 35% of the white racist vote, we’re going to continue to get maudlin pieces about how Americans didn’t reject racism in the 2018 election. The problem is not said maudlinitude, but that the inability to realize that some white racists vote Democratic in spite of and in opposition to their racism means we fail to comprehend why some people, racist or not, vote Democratic.

By the way, if you don’t believe what I wrote in the first sentence, take a gander at this figure from around May 2016 (for those keeping score at home, Sanders supporters inexplicably weren’t included, but they clocked in slightly lower than Clinton supporters). And remember–this is all supporters, not just white ones (so Clinton’s numbers are probably pretty close to the non-Trump Republicans):

USA-ELECTION-RACE5

Other surveys with different methodologies have similar results. The point is this: white Democratic racists are an integral part of the Democratic coalition (e.g., there are probably as many Democratic white racists as there are Democratic Latinos, possibly a few more). Yet they aren’t voting based on their racism (which is good!). My point isn’t to welcome racism with open arms, or argue that Democrats should try racist appeals–not at all.

It would have been wonderful if Republican Iowa congressman and elite racist Steve King had lost, but I think a large fraction of the white Democratic vote, and not just the racists, didn’t view this election through that prism. Do I like how ‘bigotry adjacent’ too many white people are? Of course not, it’s despicable (maybe even deplorable?). But you work with the electorate you have, not the electorate you wish you had. Many of them responded to something else–racism was orthogonal to their decision. Figure out what that is (I have ideas about that!), and do more of that. If a racist wants to back candidates who would do things to mitigate racism (and a bunch of other bad -isms), why shouldn’t we encourage them to do so?

Posted in Democrats, Racism | 6 Comments

Links 11/11/18

Trump_eatingyourbrain
Links for you. Science:

NASA searches the stars but can’t keep track of all its earthly goods
Want to avoid the flu? Wash hands, clean counters, crack a window, consider a surgical mask.
What a massive database of retracted papers reveals about science publishing’s ‘death penalty’
The Biggest Organism on Earth Is Dying, and It’s Our Fault
Oldest fossils or just rocks? Scientists at odds over 3.7 billion-year-old structures.

Other:

This Indiana City’s Vacant Homes Show The Other Side Of The Housing Crisis
Harvard’s affirmative action case isn’t just about race. This young woman explains why.
Bernie Sanders: ‘Trump Is Somebody Who Clearly Does Not Respect Democracy’
Meet the Navy man who fought anti-Semites and flogging — and saved Monticello
Defensible Space
GOP Senator Pushed VA to Use Unproven “Brainwave Frequency” Treatment
I Bought Used Voting Machines on eBay for $100 Apiece. What I Found Was Alarming
IT CAN HAPPEN HERE
Complete Mystery How To Make Voting Easy
Erasing Economics and Economic Policy from Politics: The Race and Xenophobia Sideshow
Barack Obama’s Great Tower of Nothing: Gentrification on a Presidential Level
Even janitors have noncompetes now. Nobody is safe. (noncompete contracts are an indication you have a fragile business model)
Having it Both Ways
The Essential Difference Between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump Didn’t Start the Fire: Here Are Things the Midterms Can’t Fix
Pentagon Wants to Predict Anti-Trump Protests Using Social Media Surveillance

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Gerrymandering Will Push The Democratic Party Leftward

Not such a bad thing, since the left essentially means the New Deal, not TEH SOCIALISMZ!!! Sean McElwee notes the following (boldface mine):

The narrative war over the future of the Democratic Party is aflutter and no doubt we’ll have better evidence soon. For now, we know that many of the insurgent Democrats that progressives were most thrilled about were not able to pull through. Further analysis of their margins will be important to determine how these candidates performed compared to an objective baseline.

There are bright spots. Colin Allred, who beat more centrist candidates in his primary, won a decisive victory. And the overall the party is moving in a leftward direction: Sharice Davids, Sean Casten, Susan Wild, Josh Harder and Haley Stevens all won (Harder is currently favored) and support Medicare for All. Four years ago, it’s unlikely that candidates in swing districts would back such unabashed progressive policies. Beto O’Rourke performed far better than expectations would predict. Further, with Jeff Van Drew barely beating an underfunded neo-Nazi, it’s far from clear that aggressive centrism is the path to electoral victory…

What’s clear is that progressive insurgents had a mixed bag… in purple districts.

In Blue districts, outright progressives are overwhelmingly coming out ahead. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Deb Haaland, Chuy Garcia, Rashida Tlaib, Jahana Hayes, Ayanna Pressley and Ilhan Omar, all unabashed progressives, will all be in the next Congress. The Medicare for all caucus will expand. Only one retiring Democrat was replaced by someone who is likely to be to their right (Colleen Hanabusa replaced by Ed Case).

This points to the path forward for progressives: it’s time to more seriously contest safe blue Democratic primaries. Incumbents like Eliot Engel who represent increasingly diverse districts but hold centrist views on key issues should face real electoral competition. In these safe blue districts we should have representatives who reflect the Democratic base, both descriptively (more women, more people of color and more young folks) and on our key issues like Medicare for All, green jobs and abolishing ICE. This is the best path forward for progressive victories…

Across the board, [Democratic] voters are supportive of more primary competition…

There are hundreds of safe seat Democrats. Many are admirable progressives. Far too many are out of touch with their districts and the progressive movement. It’s time to give Democrats in those districts a real choice. That is the path forward to a more progressive Democratic Party.

As I noted on Election Day, there were around 215 lean to solid (safe) Democratic seats, with about 190 seats being solid. Even if some of those would be less safe with moves to the left, we’re still talking about 160, 170 seats that could easily be what used to be called liberal Democratic: pro-national healthcare, higher minimum wages, pro-unionization, and, yes, good on civil rights too. Yet we’re nowhere near that. Because of gerrymandering, combined with Democratic opposition to Il Trumpe, a Democrat will win these seats in the general, so in most of these seats we don’t need a corporate Democrat (some places we might!).

If Democratic voters want a more left-leaning party, it’s ours for the taking. Remember, they work for us, not us for them.

Posted in Democrats | 1 Comment

Links 11/10/18

Trump_bigdeal
Links for you. Science:

Academic jobs were affected by the removal of mandatory retirement
FDA approves a fast-acting flu drug that is taken in a single dose
The Anti-Vaxxer Disease Is Now a Republican Epidemic
Here’s Why a 50-Degree Day Feels Colder in Fall Than in Spring
Font of despair: In the fierce competition for science funding, even a typeface glitch can be fatal

Other:

Michael Cohen Says Trump Repeatedly Used Racist Language Before His Presidency
‘If you don’t get at that rot, you just get more officers like Josh Hastings’ (this is good, but when does the Post turn its investigative chops towards D.C.–not Wor-Shing-Tun, but the District?)
Fox News Has Done More to Incite Domestic Political Violence Than Donald Trump
Trump Persuaded Struggling People to Invest in Scams, Lawsuit Says
Trump admin will apparently not renew program to fight domestic terror
Three quarters of Venice just flooded while its costly flood gate sits unfinished
Confederate-Friendly Ryan Zinke Likens Robert E. Lee To Martin Luther King Jr.
A Den of Braggarts and Brawlers
The Political Press Is Failing Us Again at the Worst Possible Time
In Bad Faith
Health and Inhuman Services
How to pay for Medicare-for-all
The Tupperware Party
Ro Khanna and progressive Democrats hope ‘Blue Wave’ shakes up American defense policy
Donald Trump and the ugly history of blaming Jews for the violence against them
The slaughter in Pittsburgh was not ‘unimaginable.’ It was inevitable.
This Dismal Week in American Politics. Or Turning and Turning in the Widening Gyre.
‘Voter fraud’ is a myth that helps Republicans win, even when their policies aren’t popular
East of the Anacostia, where there are no hotels, Airbnb has been a been a boon for property owners and guests
Stop Trying to Understand What Trump Says and Look at What His Followers Do

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