One Hilarious, but Instructive, Wrong Prediction About the Election: The Foie Gras Edition

So, before the recent election, The Atlantic ran this article about D.C.’s foie gras ban initiative (“Initiative 86”):

Screenshot 2026-11-05 at 8.50.46 AM

At the time, some asshole with a blogBluesky account noted that the referendum wasn’t tearing D.C. apart. The cool thing about political prognostication is that we often can test hypotheses. So how did Initiative 86 do?

It won 73-27, with no precinct having less than 59% approval of the measure. Not divided! The reason I bring this up is that, when you read the article, it spends a lot of time talking to an opponent of the ban, the owner of Butterworth’s. Butterworth’s is a known MAGA hangout (not just Republican, but MAGA). In other words, this was the high end version of a Cletus safari.

Even more ridiculous, the author tries to place this in the context of well-funded referenda from out-of-state, usurping local control. So, yes, this is a dumb issue and a dumb story, but even with such low stakes, it follows familiar political templates.

Brutally torn apart; how will we ever heal?

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Links 11/4/26

Links for you. Science:

Social network analysis and agent-based modeling in social epidemiology (check out the first author)
US social sciences face existential crisis after NSF cuts
Fine and ultrafine Martian dust presents additional risks for future crewed missions to Mars
The Evolution Exchange: NSF Funding Shifts in Evolutionary Biology
Long Covid Recovery Varies Sharply by Symptoms, Study Finds
Ebola Fatality Rate Tops 50% After Hundreds of Deaths Added to Congo Toll
Scientists confirm global warming is accelerating faster than ever recorded

Other:

Don’t Read The Mandate Down. No one wins a historic realignment election because inflation is slightly above trend. The public wants an end to the scourges of tyranny. Deliver it.
D.C.’s 2026 general election results are in. Here’s what they mean. In a largely suspense-free election, the District gets a democratic socialist mayor and says au revoir to foie gras.
Texas Republicans Get Washed
‘Weren’t being wallflowers’: Here’s what a Utah poll worker saw when DOJ election monitors stopped by his polling location (the attempted intimidation obviously didn’t work)
Haley Stevens proves it again: Centrists are the Democrats’ biggest problem. It’s not the progressives who undermine and betray their party, it’s the supposedly pragmatic centrists.
The New York Times Is Simply Not A Credible Newspaper. The paper fired a columnist for the “crime” of simply reposting valid criticism of the paper’s refusal to cover a new and credible Trump rape accusation.
A mandate in 2026? Not so fast. I pushed back against the idea of an electoral mandate in 2024. I haven’t changed my mind.
James Talarico Is Texan Enough for Texas Voters
Voters Oust Notorious Pro-ICE Sheriff in Maryland
What does a blue Texas sweep mean for Tesla, SpaceX & Elon Musk? (Elon stonks down big today tho)
The No Kings Election
It Wasn’t (Just) the Economy, Stupid
What Happens Next
At Ken Paxton’s Watch Party: Lots of Thoughts, Lots of Prayers
Why the Democrat blue wave could be a good thing for Apple stock
The World Is Prepared To Boycott Russian Hockey
“They Hate the Groypers Because They Were Right”: Far-right figures who broke with Trump over Iran and the Epstein files are reveling in his party’s midterm defeat.
My flabbers are gasted.
These firms you’ve never heard of are feeding fears the AI bubble could burst
Historian Carter G. Woodson’s Home Reopens as a Museum in DC
D.C. Youth Baseball Players Show Support for Coach in ICE Custody
L’Enfant Plaza is bad for everyone. Is there an opportunity to return to its residential past?
East Potomac Park Users Are Angry and Afraid Ahead of Possible Closure
Blue Texas
Senator criticizes Trump administration over low flyover by president’s plane in D.C.
Retirement Home
Politics Party: D.C. Is Ready for a New Era Under Mayor-Elect Janeese Lewis George
D.C. Council Member Christina Henderson Switches From Independent to Democrat
Lindsey’s Legacy
The Revitalized Hirshhorn Sculpture Garden Invites You to Dive Right In

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In Crushing Blow to Fascism, Voters Repudiate Republicans

I really didn’t think it would be quite like this. The only question is if the midterms should be referred to as a blue tsunami or a blue(-mediated) extinction event. What happened in Texas in particular is a full body blow to Republicans; with Texas it’s not just the seats, but it’s also a morale crisis, as this is the complete dissolution of a Republican stronghold. And remember that, in Texas, the state races were heavily gerrymandered, and Democrats still did great. In North Carolina, Democrats control the state House for the first time in sixteen years.

I could go on and on, but this is a crushing defeat–and it’s important that the political commentariat call it as such. They’re already trying to spin it as “people hate Republicans, not like Democrats”–something they never do with much less decisive Republican victories. Have no doubt: this is a crushing defeat for Republicans and for Trump.

Also, in the mainland colony known as the District of Columbia, the foie gras ban passed 73-27. Freedom is on the march.

(I’ll have more to say about the elections, but last night was a late night).

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Links 11/3/26

Links for you. Science:

Where to Find the Colors Your Screen Can’t Show You
The Currency of the Journal Article Is Collapsing
Yakima County resident dies from complications of bird flu after dairy exposure
The Year Math Changed Forever. A.I. is solving problems that stumped the field for decades. Mathematicians look to Terence Tao for guidance on their altered world.
Symptom Misrepresentation to Obtain Antibiotics
Third person dies of bird flu since virus started jumping to livestock
Antimicrobials in a Box: A Primer on the Risks of Direct-to-Consumer Antimicrobial Preparedness Kits

Other:

A Seaside Shrine to the Slaveholders’ Insurrection
Popularist Public Ownership
Even Republicans Want Ken Paxton to Lose
“You Don’t Want to Visit”: Why U.S. Allies Are Avoiding D.C.
What South Africans Know About Elon Musk
The Orbán Fake-Out
Judge Launches Investigation Into Trump Officials In East Potomac Renovation Case
Suddenly, MAGA’s Biggest Players in the House Are in Danger of Defeat
FBI Agents Have Been Instructed to Stay Away From D.C. Polling Sites
The Most Extreme, Toxic, Bizarre, Scandal-Plagued Candidates of the 2026 Midterms
Trump Has Gotten Richer — It’s Not Going to Republican Campaigns (lol, of course it’s not)
Fox News loses its grip on the culture wars
The Racism Scam
We Left Them No Choice But To Be Evil
What the Economy Is Sacrificing to AI
‘Theobros’ Want to Strip Women of the Right to Vote—But Only After They Vote Republican in the Midterms
The Online Right’s Closing Campaign Argument: Fascist Anakin Skywalker Memes
Donald Trump’s Vietnam war comment raises eyebrows
The New York Times Terminates Contract with Romance Columnist Olivia Waite After Bluesky Repost
What We Should Hear From The Winners Tonight
Separable
Midterm Countdown, Zero Days to Go.
Trump floors Fox News with bonkers bombshell out of nowhere: ‘We won’t be paying Israel’
Democracy Is A Kitchen Table Issue in 2026
Judge Calls for More ICE Agents on Witness Stand: ‘Willing To Lie’
Google Will Turn Off Search for Schools That Reject A.I. Google is making it easier to restrict its A.I. tools for students. But schools that block A.I. entirely will lose student access to Google’s search engine
Trump assaulted freedom. Americans are fighting back. That’s the story of the midterms
How GOP Election Boards Are Attacking College Voters. Students now face a “modern-day poll tax” to vote in key Senate battlegrounds.
Matt Drudge No Longer Rules Our World
How Trump Is Helping Netanyahu Steal Israel’s Election

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A Few Election Day Thoughts

In no particular order:

  1. Since people like predictions, putting on my analytical thinkin’ cap, Democrats will get 52 Senate seats and 240 House seats. Taking off that hat, and donning my ‘avoiding psychological trauma’ hat, my lower boundary is Democrats get 49 Senate seats and 225 House seats.
  2. Haley Stevens might have inadvertently helped Democrats rally around the flag (so to speak).
  3. One thing to keep in mind is that all of these races will move in a correlated fashion, albeit not in lockstep. In other words, there really isn’t a world where Annie Andrews ekes out a win, but Ossoff loses.
  4. Given the previous statement, two House races that will be bellwethers are KY-6 and Republican Andy Harris’ seat in Maryland. If Democrats do well in those races (never mind manage to win one or both), it’s going to be a really bad night for Republicans.
  5. If there’s a polling result I don’t believe, it’s Troy Jackson doing several points better than Collins (in Maine), which I’ve now seen in two different polls. I hope I’m wrong!
  6. I’m trying not to be pedantic about margins of error in polling, but it’s really hard.
  7. Obviously, if you haven’t voted yet, go vote!
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Links 11/2/26

Links for you. Science:

How Trump Is Dismantling America’s Scientific Research Machine
The Party of Pandemics Wants Your Vote!
I Used AI to Fake a Scientific Paper. Here’s What Happened
CDC scientists sought urgent alert on measles in pregnancy. It wasn’t approved. The report could fill major gaps about a condition doctors have rarely seen for decades. (but the sanctity of the unborn something something; impeach Kennedy, impeach him now)
Scientists Analyzed Thousands of Psychedelic Trips. They Found Something Disturbing
What Can Professional Scientific Societies Do to Improve Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion: A Case Study of the American Elasmobranch Society
Strange, catastrophic landslides are kicking off across the far north

Other:

The New York Times invents a Democratic scandal while ignoring a new Trump rape allegation
Why Doesn’t D.C. Have More Control Over Its Parks? In a new report, current and former city leaders argue that the National Park Service, which oversees 90% of parkland in D.C., should turn over more control.
Standing up for trans people isn’t just the right thing to do, it’s smart politics
Threats, Gaffes and Men’s Posteriors: Trump’s Talk Gets Wilder (now that it looks bad for Trump, the NYT is cautiously discussing his mental illnesses)
The foreign policy “Blob” exists. Actually, it’s an egregore.
The Confusion Over the Candidate with the Same Last Name…in Nevada…with a Sneaky Republican-Backed Voter-Confusing (?) Ad Featuring AOC That I’m Sure DOJ Will Investigate (Ha!)
Led by Trump, Republicans Close Midterms With Ugly Personal Attacks (again, the NYT is abandoning the sinking ship)
Go Over To The Dark Side
Susan Collins Is Always Keeping Score
Outside groups spend millions on ads to weaken Black support for El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race
Haley Stevens’ High(est) Profile Meltdown
A rollicking interview with The Bulwark co-founder Tim Miller on the danger of undercounting Republicans, the mistake of underestimating JD Vance, and the “sour spot” between MAGA and country club Republicans.
Traveling Route 66 in the Age of Data Centers
New York Times report on Democrats’ secret ballot-stacking effort draws mixed reactions from Alaskans
New York Times Peltola story wins the Fox News Unfair and Unbalanced Award
Trump’s Tyranny, Part 4: Superpower Suicide
Brazil’s left reinvented the right’s online playbook. It helped Lula win
Drone photo award winners: Far-out landscapes. Ship recycling. Rugs, rugs rugs!
Most Israelis think settlements policy should change to avoid more sanctions, poll finds. Survey finds UK government’s decision to impose trade ban was not a decisive factor in how Israelis voted in election
Do Celebrities Endorsing Prediction Markets Not Have Enough Money Already?
Ex-Chicago FBI boss sues Trump admin saying he was wrongly blamed for botched ‘Broadview 6’ case
Roger Marshall’s Covert Kansas Cabal: The senator is just the latest Kansan in the state legacy of the secretive, right-wing Fellowship Foundation
Iowa Farmers Union pushes for Turek, the first federal candidate the group has endorsed in years
GGWash’s endorsements for 2026 Advisory Neighborhood Commission candidates
Microsoft just gave us the perfect name for AI thieves: Kyle
Abortion Opponents Warn Republicans That Ignoring the Issue Will Cost Them the Election
Garden apartments hold fascinating local history, future promise
Beatty’s Lawyers Say Kennedy Center Officials Pushed Closure to Hide Financial Struggles
The ‘Blacklash’ Is Here
Shooting The Dead

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Who Vets Democratic Politicians?

Believe it or not, this is not a post about the NY Times. On Sunday, Democratic congresswoman and Michigan senate primary candidate Haley Stevens immolated what remains of her political career by endorsing and appearing in public with rightwing Republican Michigan senate candidate Mike Rogers. What most people are trying to figure out is why Stevens would do this. By way of Atrios, we get some inside skinny from another Michigan senate primary candidate Mallory McMorrow’s husband, Ray Wert:

haleystevens

What I would like to know is how Stevens ever got traction in the first place. If Wert is correct about Stevens, she was a disaster waiting to happen (at least with someone like Fetterman, part of his shift can be attributed to his stroke–and has been). And it’s not like she’s a political virtuoso with some flaws. She’s basically a replacement-level Democrat. Somewhere along the way, someone should have realized this is not a person you want running for the Senate, especially in an important race.

Worse, unlike Platner, she’s not an outsider. She was the establishment’s preferred candidate. Yet somehow this latent dumpster fire was able to survive and thrive in the Democratic Party*. We need better vetting.

*Stevens has links to Steven Rattner, but I have no idea if that played any role whatsoever in her political ascent.

Posted in Democrats | 3 Comments

Links 11/1/26

Links for you. Science:

Families in the US are opting for earlier measles vaccinations amid outbreak
Kennedy to select MAHA-aligned researcher to head mental health institute, overruling NIH director
As a historic measles outbreak hits Pennsylvania Amish country, more show openness to vaccines
‘Star Trek’ Actor Patrick Stewart Lived With Lewy Body Dementia. What Is It?
Lizard’s Secret of Defense Preserved in 100-Million-Year-Old Amber
More Like A Colossal Piece Of Shit
People Used to Drink Wine Made From Ground-Up Mummies. Now, Scientists Are Studying It

Other:

‘Screwed Up’: Latino Voters In Texas’ Rio Grande Valley Regret Backing Trump In 2024
Both parties tried to game Alaska primary field. The Democrat running for Senate, Mary Peltola, is accused of recruiting a spoiler candidate, but Republicans have also boosted spoilers.
Park Police Pursuit Ends in a Crash for the Third Time This Week. Policies for Park Police car chases were loosened last year under an executive order from President Donald Trump. (the Park Police, without the consent of the governed, has decided to inflict its own policing policy on the residents of the mainland colony)
Where’s The Music? This election is a referendum on Trump’s attempt to rule as king. Democrats should close on putting down his rebellion, no matter what happens to the price of diesel.
Why Donald Trump Wants To Replace American History With Big Statues Of Famous People
Three Simple Tests For A Democratic Majority
Thinking Clearly About January 6
Freshly Humiliated Flavio Bolsonaro Scurries Off To Miami
I’m an Israeli-American Jew. I Love Israel. I Voted for Abdul El-Sayed
New census rules could erase a quarter of Boston
Centrist Democrats Are Trying Hard to Lose the Midterms
Viral Debate Crashout Has Endangered Maryland’s Sole Republican House Member
The Punk-Rock Appeal of the Women’s Pro Baseball League
Forget Congress. The fight for democracy is in these under-the-radar, downballot races
The Eviction Kings Are Being Sued
Why I, a Palestinian Citizen of Israel, Broke My Boycott and Voted in the Election
Will the Progressive Insurgency in NY-17 Oust MAGA Loyalist Mike Lawler?
El-Sayed is just the latest liberal candidate forced to affirm his loyalty to America
Donald Trump Is Bad at Politics
Someday, the Republicans will again want to be seen as conservative. Don’t let them
The GOP’s midterm plan: Make America hate Muslims again
In Leaked Audio, Flock CEO Tells Cops Backlash to the Company Isn’t Real
MAGA attacks on women voters are no joke. Even if they can’t repeal the 19th Amendment, opponents of women’s suffrage are gaining power in the GOP
Major D.C. Landlord Sued Over Excessive Fees for Tenants. A D.C. renter claims Vivmark Residential charged him and others thousands of dollars in fees the D.C. Council has ruled illegal
Low-engagement voters are swinging hard toward Democrats. Low-engagement voters handed Trump the 2024 election. Now they support Democrats for Congress
Musk gives a very racist reason for all his election spending
What If Elon Throttles Netflix?
Proton’s CEO Cancels AI ‘Re-Interviews’
The Anti-A.I. Money Strikes Back
The AI bubble could expose your deepest secrets

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In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

On COVID Conspiracies and Mink Farms

The National Guard Occupation Is Not Harmless

The NY Times Could Use This Word Every Day to Describe Trump’s Speech

A Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Posted in Weekly Roundup | 1 Comment

Links 10/31/26

Links for you. Science:

Ohio’s Kroger gets $3 million ‘MAHA’ grant. Critics call it taxpayer-funded marketing.
The efficiency of information gain by natural selection
A New Kind of Chemistry
The phantom lighthouse: new research explains one of Australia’s strangest illusions
AI Generated Content and the Identification of Features in Time Series Data
Scientific Reports on hold in PubMed while NLM reevaluates journal
Pork Futures: How should we save our swine?
Congo Ebola outbreak kills more than 5,000

Other:

Please Let the Internet Die
Forget Banning Stock Trades. A Democratic Majority Must Tackle All Corruption.
Former Patient Files Class-Action Lawsuit Against Senator Marshall
Searching for Jobs, Gen Z Feels Like It’s Staring Into ‘the Void’
DoorDash’s $17B Acquisition of Instacart Points to a World Without Employees
George Pelecanos Shows Off His D.C. Roots Yet Again
Ask A D.C. Native: I’m an artist. Should I leave D.C. to make it big?
RFK Jr. may hate vaccines, but he loves mystery shots
Nearly half of people who applied for shelter at this D.C. homeless family crisis center were denied
Mark Ein closes in on control of Rock Creek Tennis Center, home of DC Open
Democrats Have a Bogeyman in Musk. They’re Hardly Using Him.
Agentic AI is myth set in motion
After decades of boycotts, Palestinian citizens of Israel turned out to vote. It could shape what comes next
‘Amateur morons’: Flávio Bolsonaro’s short-lived ‘president-elect’ claim met with mockery
Federal judge signals she may halt construction on Trump’s arch
The Supreme Court’s Gutting of the Voting Rights Act is Mobilizing Black Voters. Look at Alabama.
We polled Kansas. Democrats wanted to talk. Republicans, not so much.
Stephen Miller Messed with Texas
No one paid me to disagree with Jonathan Haidt. It was teenagers who taught me that he was wrong.
How Republican lie that Abdul El-Sayed ‘publicly supported’ Muslim Brotherhood started with Laura Loomer
Cabinet Officials on the Campaign Trail? Ethics Experts Say Some Are Breaking the Law.
Let’s Talk About Alaska
Mike Rogers’s Wife Runs a Consultancy That Sells Government Access
A very abbreviated list of a few corruption scandals from the first half of Trump’s second term
Instagram shut down a No Kings account. Now Democrats want answers from Mark Zuckerberg.
U.S. to Send Dozens Back to Afghanistan, Despite Risk of Persecution
Trump Rages as Leaks Show Aides Feeding Him Midterm Hopium
D.C. and Virginia sue to block Trump’s proposed triumphal arch
2028 Won’t Be the 2020 Ideas Primary Again

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