Mike the Mad Biologist

Yesterday, the mainland colony known as the District of Columbia had its primary elections–and for all intents and purposes, the Democratic primaries are the de facto election (there wasn’t even a Republican candidate for mayor on the ballot). Some comments, with the earlier ones being more of a summary of where things currently stand with around two-thirds of the first rank ballots having been counted, with the latter points discussing What It All Means:

1. For mayor, Janeese Lewis George has a commanding first rank lead over Kenyan McDuffie, 53-37. While it’s mathematically possible for McDuffie to win–and there’s no reason for him to concede right now–that doesn’t seem likely. Interestingly, Lewis George has done well everywhere: even in Ward 3, she is currently down only 43-46 (more on that below).
2. For the citywide At-Large Council position, Oye Owolewa, the most progressive candidate has 33.8% of the first rank votes, which, to me, is (pleasantly) surprising–though he is a very personable, likeable candidate. That said, if Owolewa doesn’t win a majority of the first rank votes, I would not be surprised to see Chavous do well, as I suspect he is many voters’ “safety vote.” It’s really too early to tell how this race will turn out.
3. For (non-voting) Congressman, Robert White has a commanding lead over Brooke Pinto, 63-21. I suspect that Kinney Zalesne’s first rank voters (she’s in third at 7.7%) will lean White, so I think it looks good for White.
4. The insurgent Free D.C. slate for Democratic Party ward committee members seems to have done very well so far (note these are party positions, not governing positions). That said, with more votes to be counted, it’s too early to call any of these, but right now, it is looking good for the slate as a whole.
5. Assuming the mayoral vote holds up, there will be a trivial storyline about “DSA versus moderates.” I use trivial as a pejorative because I actually think it explains very little.
   
   

   First, given the Free D.C. slate results, there’s a lot of anti-incumbent energy, and McDuffie is viewed as the old guard, while Lewis George is not. Second, polling suggests that the most successful issue for Lewis George is housing, while McDuffie’s is crime prevention–and, as I keep noting every week, crime has dropped massively over the last three years. It’s just not as salient an issue as it would have been a few years ago. Ironically, to the limited extent that Trump’s fascist surge has been successful in reducing crime–arguably it has with respect to car-related crimes and perhaps muggings–it strengthened Lewis George, whom Trump has publicly attacked. There’s a renters versus homeowners angle here too. Finally, McDuffie has personal issues. He is seen by many as a chameleon who changes his views constantly. He attacked Lewis George’s family during the campaign, and he initially tried to run as the competency candidate, which is a problem when you’re not that competent. In addition, Lewis George hammered both of these themes by arguing he has not done a good job overseeing electricity rate regulation and reminding voters of his attempts to water down some other good legislation.

   Put another way, Lewis George isn’t currently down by only three points in Ward 3 because Ward 3 is full of socialists (lmfao).

6. The real wild card right now in all of this is the At-Large Council position. If Owolewa manages to win, that really changes things regarding the composition of the council–and I think Owolewa also has a bit of Mamdani-style charisma (I joke how Mamdani reminds people of that nice young doctor that time they had to go the emergency room, and Owolewa, who is a pharmacist, can actually fill that role).
7. The Washington Post editorial board must be really upset right now, which is always a good, deserved thing.

Anyway, with more votes to be counted, you can look at the data yourself here and here.