Mike the Mad Biologist

There should be no doubt about the importance of massive Black voter turnout in the South in the 2026 election (boldface mine):

We can use this chart to estimate the voter turnout rate both for Black voters and for other voters in the South. According to Strength In Numbers’ estimates, Black voters turned out at about 96% of presidential-year levels in the Deep South, compared to about 71% for white and other voters…

This has contributed not just to a possible — perhaps even likely — Senate victory in Mississippi, but to Democrats doing well across the South. Democrat Annie Andrews beat (appointed) South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham by about 4.5 points, 51.3% to 46.8%, in a state Trump carried by 18 points just two years ago.

Without the surge in Black voter turnout, Andrews would have won by under a point.

Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures was able to hold on to his seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District this year, despite GOP lawmakers diluting the Black vote after the Supreme Court gave their blessing to Republicans to gerrymander Black voters and Democrats in Louisiana v. Callais in April.

In 2024, under a court-drawn map, Alabama’s 2nd District was 48.7% Black by voting-age population. Figures won it with 54.6% of the vote. For 2026, Republicans cut the district’s Black voting-age population to 39.9%.

Yet Figures still won 53.8% of the vote. Because of a relative increase in Black participation, Republicans cut the district’s Black voting-age population by nearly 9 points, but Figures’ vote share fell by less than 1 point.

It is inspiring to see this, but at the same time, should lead to some caution about claims about the death knell of the Republican Party. There is no way that a similar gap will occur in 2028, which is a presidential election year. There still might be a gap, but it will be narrower, and that can make all the difference. In Mississippi, the NY Times estimated that, in 2024, the Black vote was thirty percent of the electorate, while in 2024, it was 33%. For Senator-Elect Colom, that’s the entire difference between winning and losing.

That said, it’s quite possible that the South settles into a pattern similar to that seen in Virginia ten to fifteen years ago, where parties succeed or fail based on whether the election is an off-year election or not. This would a marked improvement over Republican dominance, but it’s not a death knell for Republicans. But taking victories where we can get them is still a good thing and worth doing.

Aside: The real question remains if white evangelicals will either be less likely to vote Republican or if they vote less often. I’m assuming neither of those things happens over the long term.