The Trump Administration calls for $5 billion in cuts from NIH*. A key justification for that is COVID conspiracism:
Additional egregious examples of wasteful and radical NIH IC spending that would be eliminated through
reforms include:
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases funneling millions of dollars to EcoHealth
Alliance, which funded the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the likely source of the COVID-19 pandemic,
under Dr. Anthony Fauci. Dr. Fauci also commissioned “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”
publication, which was used to discredit and dismiss any assertion that COVID-19 leaked from a
lab, despite several intelligence agencies now determining COVID-19 likely leaked from a lab.
There’s also the usual Republican bullshit about the Notorious D.E.I. and TEH TRANZ!!, but I want to focus on the excerpted part. This is really like determining if someone is a witch by drowning: if they float, they’re witches, and if they sink, well, oops. What that statement tells me is that several so-called intelligence agencies are really bad at evaluating evidence. I’m going to outsource what I find to be the most compelling argument against the lab leak hypothesis (boldface mine):
There were two lineages of virus present at the Huanan market, called “A” and “B”… These two lineages represent two divergent evolutionary paths the virus took. They are distinguished by their sequences. When RNA viruses like SARS-CoV-2 replicate, they make mistakes as they copy their genomes. These are mutations. Sometimes these are under positive selection (they give the virus an advantage) and become fixed. Sometimes they are just mistakes that are not under selection or are under negative selection, and they appear transiently, and can revert or mutate to something else. All of this mutation results in an elaborate genetic fingerprint that can be used to trace SARS-CoV-2 as it spread from person to person. We can use phylogenetic analysis to look into the past of any given virus, provided we have enough sequence data. SARS-CoV-2 caused a pandemic that infected millions. We have a lot of sequence data.
…Their work showed that single spillover scenarios were not likely, meaning lineage A and B did not diverge in humans. They have gone on to show this more rigorously. If they didn’t diverge in humans, then they either diverged in an intermediate host or in the lab.
The known cases associated with the market were all lineage B. However, the market hypothesis predicts that both lineages would be present at Huanan market, since they diverged in a host being sold there. This prediction came true when the CCDC first released their preprint in February 2022 and revealed a lineage A sequence at the market. This is consistent with the virus diverging in intermediate animal host(s), and then spilling over into humans at least twice, one to two weeks apart. I say “at least” because the lineages represent the two times we know about, since sustained human-to-human transmission was established and we can study all the sequences of the viruses that evolved from these initial introductions.
A lab leak scenario that fits with these two spillovers is much more farfetched. In order for these data to be consistent with a lab leak, someone working at the WIV, which is over 10 miles away on the other side of the Yangtze River, gets infected with lineage B at work. They go straight to the Huanan market without infecting anyone else along the way. They only infect other people at or near the Huanan market. Then, one to two weeks later, the same thing happens with lineage A.
…Does it make more sense that this technically possible but very unlikely dual lab leak occurred? Or does it make more sense that SARS-CoV-2—a virus that is very good at infecting a LOT of different species without any adaptation—found its way into an intermediate host on sale at Huanan market, and then found its way into humans in a city of 11 million people, where sustained spread and further adaptation could occur?
Despite having to assume that two lab leaks of closely-related but not identical lab leaks occurring in the exact same pattern–which already assumes that the (supposedly) infected personnel managed to start an outbreak in the market without infecting anyone along the way–the Trump administration and three ‘intelligence’ agencies believe COVID was due to a lab leak.
While this conspiracism is par for the course for the Republican Party, it could have real effects on the health and welfare of the U.S.
*As you might imagine, the numbers for their NIH budget do not add up because they suck at their jobs.
mikethemadbiologist