Category Archives: COVID-19

D.C.’s Prevalence Estimates Are Pretty Accurate

Like many state* governments, D.C. releases a lot of data about COVID-19, including the number of identified daily new cases. Note the word identified. It’s never been entirely clear how well daily new cases reflect the number of infected people. … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC | Leave a comment

The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Getting Worse

I just realized this post that was supposed to come out Monday, obviously didn’t. Oops. Across the city as a whole, D.C.’s new cases increased by twenty percent this week, and the city exceeded the German rollback threshold of 50 … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC | Leave a comment

The COVID Conundrum Facing Local and State Governments

Yesterday (and many other times), I’ve noted there are several economic policies–which have to be federal policies–needed to allow us to enact the public health policies needed to ‘crush the curve’ and drive down the prevalence of COVID-19. As a … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, Economics | 3 Comments

D.C. Knows Its COVID-19 Situation

We just don’t seem to have a solution, but I’m getting ahead of myself. D.C.’s Mayor Bowser noted this about the state of COVID-19 in the District, and the situation really hasn’t changed since she said this (boldface mine): Experts … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC | 1 Comment

The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Unchanged and Still Too Prevalent

Overall, the prevalence of COVID-19 is unchanged in D.C. It’s also still too high, as shown below (for reference, a one-week prevalence of 0.007% and a two-week prevalence of 0.014% would be equal to a daily new case rate of … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC | Leave a comment

Bringing Testing to People

One point I try to make on the Twitter machine and on this crappy blog is that we need to bring testing to people. It’s not enough to have the ability to conduct X number of tests, if that capacity … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC | 2 Comments

The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Improving, but Still Not Close to Where We Need to Be

D.C. has prevalence about six and a half times as high as a good prevalence, one that allows normal-ish activity (one new case per 100,000 people per day). This is the first time in months that D.C. has dropped below … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19 | Leave a comment

You Can’t MacGyver Your Way Out of a Pandemic

Here’s one problem our contact tracing system(s), such as they are, have (boldface mine): It’s likely that the first time many Americans heard the term contact tracing was this spring. Before that, some public-health departments were little more than two … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, Public Health | 3 Comments

The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Overall, the Same as Last Week

Which still is about seven times as high as a good prevalence, one that allows normal-ish activity (one new case per 100,000 people per day). Wards 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 improved (Wards 5 and 7 decreased a lot), … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC | Leave a comment

What Normal-ish Means, Especially for D.C. Schools

One point some asshole with a blog Twitter feed routinely makes is that, if we could lower the prevalence of COVID-19 in D.C. to lower levels, we could return to normal-ish activities. So what does that mean? What we want … Continue reading

Posted in COVID-19, DC, Education | 1 Comment