And I’m old enough to remember when Democrats were the party of low-propensity voters. In other words, Democrats used to want high levels of turnout because unlikely/less likely voters were disproportionately Democratic. But things have been changing as some asshole with a blog noted in 2020 (boldface added):
But the Democratic leadership still thinks it’s the 1990s, when likely Democratic voters often didn’t show up (a historical note: in the 1990s Black turnout was low, but that’s what happens when a significant fraction of Democrats decide to make Black people Public Enemy No. 1). But in 2018 and 2020 (and in fairness, 2008 and 2012), Democrats have done very well getting their voters out, while Republicans have had a harder time, unless Trump is on the ballot. The historical irony is that high-turnout might favor Republicans overall, meaning off-year elections will be more favorable for Democrats, which would be a historic reversal. It’s not clear Democrats understand this: high turnout among less likely voters can hurt Democrats in a lot of places–and that’s arguably the biggest story in the election.
Well, now we haz dataz!
And this is reflected in newer polls that are sampling likely voters, in which Biden has a 4-5 point advantage over Trump.
A side effect of this, which isn’t relevant for 2024, is that Democrats will likely do very well in many off-year elections–and those elections do count–a majority built in off-year elections can pass legislation just as well as one built in a presidential year.
mikethemadbiologist