COVID Is Still Rising in D.C.

And Alexandria, VA, the only adjacent municipality that is still collecting wastewater data. Here’s D.C.:

Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 9.50.43 AM

And here’s Alexandria, VA:

Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 9.51.09 AM

For context, the maximal values for Alexandria and D.C. during the January 2023 peak were 1,306 and 1,222 respectively, while the current values are 418 and 447 respectively. It looks like Alexandria finally caught up to D.C. While I’m uncomfortable about converting these data into prevalence, my hunch is we’re probably looking at about 0.7% of people who are currently infected.

The real concern is we’ve had multiple weeks of increases–and that means in a couple of months, unless something changes–and, in what is an utter policy failure by the Biden Administration (can’t blame Trump for this one!), the XBB-based monovalent vaccines won’t begin to arrive until the beginning of October, so it’s not clear what will change–there’s a good chance by the beginning of October, we’ll be at a prevalence higher than one percent.

And unless there’s a massive surge in vaccination, especially among those likely to transmit the virus, the late fall and early winter could be worse.

Happy Monday everybody!

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