On Monday, I discussed how the D.C. area, based on wastewater surveillance, has had an increase in COVID over the last several weeks. Now, it appears that increases are everywhere (both in terms of anecdotes and national data).

Oddly enough, the most recent D.C. area data suggest the prevalence of COVID is leveling off, but if the rest of the U.S. is increasing, it’s only a matter of time. That said, I still don’t think we’ll see any true surges–if we do see them at all–until September at the earliest. For a surge to happen, we need the trifecta of waning immunity (likely), behavioral patterns mixing people together into new networks (definitely, with return to schools and so on after the summer), and a new variant against which previous infections provide little or no protection (unknown).

So we’ll have to see. Regardless, you want to limit the number of times you get this crap.