Though with a significant caveat. Before we get to that, only Wards 2 and 3 are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):
|Ward||one-week prevalence||one-week % pos.||two-week prevalence||two-week % pos.|
Most wards had large declines, except for Wards 3 and 4 (Ward 3 was low to begin with). Overall, the city had a twenty three percent decrease in new positives. That said, Tuesday’s numbers were very low, so hopefully this isn’t a data reporting issue (e.g., a big bolus of positives tomorrow). We lack percent positive rates for each ward, however, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is alright, but we don’t know how each ward is doing.
Vaccination is still trundling along at 0.1% per day, and we haven’t seen any effect of the federal vaccination mandate (there are over 120,000 federal employees in D.C.). We had three deaths in the last week, and hospitalizations continue to decline. We still have no significant vaccine requirements for patronizing indoor establishments, and none seem on the horizon.
At the same time, it’s clear that the D.C. government doesn’t understand the problem unvaccinated kids with unvaccinated parents presents. So while I don’t think fall and early winter will be bad, we seem to be heading towards a kinder, gentler Great Barrington Declaration in terms of policy.
Rage is still the appropriate emotion.