The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: The Decline Is Slowing

And in a couple of wards, stalling. Before we get to that, only Ward 3 is below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.086% 0.192%
2 0.063% 0.159%
3 0.042% 0.091%
4 0.117% 0.225%
5 0.125% 0.248%
6 0.124% 0.250%
7 0.162% 0.367%
8 0.223% 0.492%
D.C. total 0.117% 2.4% 0.252% 2.3%

Wards 1, 2, 3, 7 and 8 had large declines, while Ward 4 had an increase, with Wards 5 and 6 remaining constant. Overall, the city had a seventeen percent decrease in new positives. We lack percent positive rates for each ward, however, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is alright, but we don’t know how each ward is doing.

Vaccination is still trundling along at 0.1% per day, and I’m surprised we haven’t seen any effect of the federal vaccination mandate (there are over 120,000 federal employees in D.C.). We had three deaths in the last week, and hospitalizations continue to decline. We still have no significant vaccine requirements for patronizing indoor establishments, which would make those places safer and increase the number of vaccinated people. As we noted last week:

Meanwhile, in an attempt to buoy her support in wealthier wards, Bowser is refusing to be more flexible about remote learning, and, in doing so, treating the reported school COVID-19 positives as if they are not a massive underestimate: she can’t claim you’re Following The Science while simultaneously touting a testing scheme that almost seems designed to miss most cases. Akshually, Bowser did do that, but that’s why most state and local politicians, who have done a mediocre job throughout the pandemic, shouldn’t be re-elected.

Rage is still the appropriate emotion.

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