The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: The Good News Is the Decline…

…the bad news is where it’s declining from. Before we get to that, no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.138% n/a 0.318% n/a
2 0.109% n/a 0.254% n/a
3 0.062% n/a 0.134% n/a
4 0.125% n/a 0.288% n/a
5 0.170% n/a 0.359% n/a
6 0.154% n/a 0.348% n/a
7 0.264% n/a 0.613% n/a
8 0.320% n/a 0.777% n/a
D.C. total 0.165% 2.5% 0.384% 2.6%

All wards had significant declines, and city-wide, D.C. had a 24% decrease, though COVID-19, like the rent, is still too damn high. We lack percent positive rates for each ward, however, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is alright, but we don’t know how each ward is doing.

Vaccination is a little higher than the 0.1% increase per day for the entire population we’ve seen for the last few months. I had hoped the federal worker vaccination mandate would lead to increased vaccination, but maybe we’ll see a surge this week, as the ‘drop dead’ dates for beginning vaccination at many agencies are early to mid-October. We had three deaths in the last week, but hospitalizations are declining somewhat.

D.C. needs to limit certain indoor non-essential activities to the fully vaccinated because we do not have time to wait for people to reach the right decision, as our rate of vaccination still isn’t fast enough.

Once again, some asshole with a blog noted last week:

Even though some wards are doing really poorly on vaccination, such as Wards 7 and 8, it bears repeating that no wards are at eighty percent or higher fully vaccinated, even if we make some assumptions about how the ‘missing fully vaccinated’ are distributed. Mayor Bowser and the gormless Council need to fucking govern, and pass vaccination requirements. They needed to do this in August: at this point, the best we can hope for is that November isn’t dreadful. That won’t happen without vaccination mandates. How, for example, can D.C. allow indoor dining without requiring a vaccination requirement, given the prevalence of COVID-19? We either need a vaccination requirement or we need to ban indoor dining–this is an utterly insane policy.

None of this needed to happen.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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