The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: A Catastrophe

No way to sugarcoat it. Before we get to that, no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.138% n/a 0.262% n/a
2 0.186% n/a 0.277% n/a
3 0.101% n/a 0.166% n/a
4 0.158% n/a 0.271% n/a
5 0.252% n/a 0.438% n/a
6 0.200% n/a 0.341% n/a
7 0.311% n/a 0.569% n/a
8 0.391% n/a 0.687% n/a
D.C. total 0.220% 3.7% 0.379% 4.2%

Every ward had a significant increase, with Ward 2 having a doubling in one week. The number of positives increased by 39% across the entire city. We lack percent positive rates for each ward, however, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is still too high, meaning we’re underestimating cases.

We have had four deaths in the last week, but hospitalizations for COVID-19 have leveled off. Vaccination is back to a 0.1% increase per day for the entire population. To repeat myself ad nauseum, D.C. needs to limit certain indoor non-essential activities to the fully vaccinated because we do not have time to wait for people to reach the right decision since this rate of vaccination simply isn’t fast enough.

School opening, especially in light of D.C.’s Potemkin school testing regime, seems to have not gone well: remember that given the low percentage of students tested, most student cases will be missed.

Even though some wards are doing really poorly on vaccination, such as Wards 7 and 8, it bears repeating that no wards are at eighty percent or higher fully vaccinated, even if we make some assumptions about how the ‘missing fully vaccinated’ are distributed. Mayor Bowser and the gormless Council need to fucking govern, and pass vaccination requirements. They needed to do this in August: at this point, the best we can hope for is that November isn’t dreadful. That won’t happen without vaccination mandates. How, for example, can D.C. allow indoor dining without requiring a vaccination requirement, given the prevalence of COVID-19? We either need a vaccination requirement or we need to ban indoor dining–this is an utterly insane policy.

None of this needed to happen.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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