The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Overall, the Same as Last Week

Which still is about seven times as high as a good prevalence, one that allows normal-ish activity (one new case per 100,000 people per day). Wards 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 improved (Wards 5 and 7 decreased a lot), but the other wards increased, especially Ward 6. Only Wards 1 – 3 would be under the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week (0.05% in the second column below), and the city as a whole also would fail:

Ward one-week prevalence two-week prevalence
1 0.040% 0.079%
2 0.032% 0.068%
3 0.031% 0.049%
4 0.059% 0.122%
5 0.064% 0.135%
6 0.052% 0.081%
7 0.056% 0.138%
8 0.073% 0.153%
D.C. 0.051% 0.103%

While things aren’t worse than last week, they’re not better either (D.C. had one less case this week, compared to last). One thing to note is that only half of the tests D.C. administers actually test D.C. residents (48.7%). While some out of state tests are to be expected, this suggests that there isn’t as much contact tracing-related testing as one would like (or much at all). Until we increase that, we’re not going to significantly decrease our prevalence.

As I noted last week (and that week before that, and the week before…), in D.C., we are four to six weeks away from returning to normal-ish, but we intentionally remain four to six weeks away from returning to normal-ish because we’re unwilling to do what it takes to make that happen. It doesn’t have to be like this.

Anger is still the appropriate emotion.

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