The State of COVID in D.C.: Some Improvement, Which Isn’t Good Enough

Most wards, with the exception of Ward 2 in which prevalence increased, had a decline in the prevalence of COVID-19 infections. Using the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week (0.05% in the second column below), Wards 4, 5, 7, and 8, along with the District as a whole are above the rollback threshold:

Ward one week prevalence two week prevalence
1 0.038% 0.078%
2 0.036% 0.057%
3 0.019% 0.053%
4 0.063% 0.144%
5 0.071% 0.170%
6 0.029% 0.088%
7 0.083% 0.191%
8 0.079% 0.156%
DC total 0.052% 0.117%

The good news is that there has been improvement, but the bad news is that the prevalence is still about seven to eight times higher than the threshold of one new case per 100,000 people per day: this would be fifty new cases per week for D.C., and last week there were 370 new cases.

While there’s improvement, I don’t see how we’re going to drop the prevalence seven to eight fold with the current strategy. We still need to deploy more rapid testing and deploy it to people–that is, go find the people. We also need enough rapid testing capacity, so we can investigate deeply. Because it’s either that–which given the number of cases probably won’t lower the prevalence enough, or roll back to phase 1.

As I note every week, in D.C., we are four to six weeks away from returning to normal-ish, but we intentionally remain four to six weeks away from returning to normal-ish because we’re unwilling to do what it takes to make that happen.

Anger is still the appropriate emotion.

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