Even if their favorite Democrat wins. Or maybe it’s just crap data.
There’s a poll that was released with very small sample sizes, but which also had some interesting tidbits, so it was pushed far and wide because it made certain supporters–and haters–very happy. The reality is, when you’re reading a poll with small sample sizes that has been adjusted, you get some really weird things happening, with a handful of people representing an entire demographic subgroup, so the poll that is being shared hither and yon needs to be taken with a boulder of salt (the .xlsx sheet is available here).
Anyway, the thing that has people freaking out is that 27/103 Sanders supporters in the primary say they would support Trump over Warren, were she to be the nominee (columns AU & AV, rows 90-92). On the other side of the ideological spectrum, 13/85 Biden supporters say they would choose Trump over Warren. If you’re wondering why sample size and weighting matter, fifty percent of Klobuchar supporters say they would choose Trump over Warren (ZOMG!): the result is actually 2/4.
What I find interesting–if these numbers are to be believed at all–is that there are Democratic primary voters who have no intention of voting for their top choice. Here it is by candidate (the question wasn’t asked of all candidates):
We could make up more stories about this poll, or we could just be sensible, and stop reading into a massively underpowered poll from one time point. Sometimes, with small numbers, you get unlucky, and sometimes people push the wrong button. Either way, let’s stop obsessing about this poll.