People used to talk about the ‘Bradley Effect’, named after African-American mayor and failed gubernatorial candidate William Bradley, who lost even though pre-election polls predicted a victory. It was thought some voters who intended to vote for the white candidate told pollsters that they were undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, so as not to face potential criticism.
I’m wondering if there’s a ‘Trump Effect’, which would be the converse: there are Trump supporters who will deny they’re for Trump so they don’t face criticism.
mikethemadbiologist
The Republicans are going to do what they always do. They are going to vote for their candidate. They might even denounce him publicly, but they are going to vote for Trump. Back in the 70s, some Republicans voted against Goldwater and later Ford because of his association with Nixon. Those Republicans no longer exist. They’ve been tribal since the 1980s. That isn’t going to change soon.
Public denial is the new reaction formation. Either way, let the gerrymandering games begin…
Most of the Trump supporters I know are out and proud. Now its just the holdouts as they sigh and get ready to vote for him because “Republican!” Particularly with the “ebil Hillary Clinton” to stop.
At least in the northeast, I suspect so. Expect him to do better than polls suggest in California- if so, I’d say there’s a real “Trump Effect”- because his supposed unfavorability in CA is astronomical- if there is any place a Trump supporter would not be “out” it’s there.
That said, he always did do well with *ahem* “low information voters” who may be more likely to be undecideds in polling and then vote for him- I suspect a statistical analysis of whether he outperformed the polls more in places with high “general liberal attitudes” or outperformed in places with high “undecided/low info voters” would clarify a bit.
Of course, and it’s YU-U-U-U-U-GE! The biggest, the best effect ever.
It’s called the “Shy Tory Factor” in Britain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
There will be a Trump Effect but it will be small. Like his fingers.
I’m looking forward to seeing the debates. Trump did well enough against “low energy” Bush and “sweaty, robotic” Rubio, but Trump has yet to sit across from anyone who is not an “empty suit”, puffed up by low expectations and Koch money.
Tom Bradley not William, no?