In case you didn’t hear, the CDC is proposing new COVID isolation guidelines (boldface mine):

Under the proposed guidelines, Americans would no longer be advised to isolate for five days before returning to work or school. Instead, they might return to their routines if they have been fever free for at least 24 hours without medication, the same standard applied to the influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses.

The proposal would align the C.D.C.’s advice with revised isolation recommendations in Oregon and California. The shift was reported earlier by The Washington Post, but it is still under consideration, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions…

“From a long-term public health perspective, I think this sets really an unfortunate precedent,” said Dr. Syra Madad, senior director of the special pathogens program at NYC Health and Hospitals.

She urged the C.D.C. to “seize this opportunity to truly change how we respond to deadly epidemics and pandemics and advocate for national, guaranteed paid sick and family leave instead of caving into the easier option of eliminating the isolation period.”

Some researchers worried that Americans would interpret the new advice to mean that Covid was no longer a threat. At its peak this winter, Covid claimed about 1,500 lives a day. In adults older than 65, deaths from Covid have been two to four times as common as those from the flu.

Of course, I’m old enough to remember when HHS Secretary Becerra defended the current CDC guidelines in those halcyon days of yore, also known as Jan. 29, 2024. And it would appear the CDC has been relocated to the Department of Commerce.

But what’s missing from most of the coverage–and all of the policy discussion–is any estimate of long COVID. For most people, the primary danger will not be death or hospitalization, but long COVID. As best as I can tell, policy makers, both appointed and elected, are working under the assumption that the rate of long COVID in people who are up-to-date on their vaccinations is zero.

But there’s a mile of difference between zero and one percent. I apologize for the remedial arithmetic, but if 100 million people in the U.S. (about thirty percent of the entire population) get COVID and they are vaccinated, a one percent rate would mean one million people would suffer from long-term disability.

We desperately need journalists to ask policy makers–both public health officials and elected ones–what their estimates are of long COVID in those ‘who did what they were supposed to do.’

We would never take discussions of Social Security cuts seriously without some numbers (even if they’re bullshit numbers). Imagine the following conversation about Social Security:

“Your monthly check will be cut by some amount.”
“What does some amount mean?”
“Less than you get now.”
“No, how much will I lose?”
“Less than that guy over there.”
“….”

That wouldn’t be considered serious, but with COVID, we’re just using vibes-based policy…