While I realize “the party that gets its voters out to vote the most wins” seems obvious, you really wouldn’t know that sometimes based on certain punditry. Adam Bonica lays it out starkly:
When the percentage of registered Democratic voters who show up and vote is equal to or higher than the percentage of registered Republican voters who do so, we win. There might be a lesson in that about appealing to supposed swing voters, as well as unlikely registered Democratic voters.
Caveat: this is based on an early analysis of 2026 voter data.
mikethemadbiologist
I read an article that, yes, black turnout in the south was almost at Presidential year election levels, while white turnout was typical for a mid-term. Again, based mostly on preliminary exit-polling data and not officially published demographics. 2028 will be harder because white turnout will return…and if Democrats can’t deliver *something*, then minority turnout will drop again as it usually does when they come out, vote, and nothing changes (2022).
The Senate seats will hold, of course, but several of the House wins are going to be tough to hold. One thing that will help this time is the change in state legislatures and governors, who can undo some of the systemic suppression and produce some changes that will have more immediate impact since they won’t be subject to the trifecta of a filibuster, a veto, and the Roberts Doctrine that there should be no injunctions no matter the permanent damage.
Obvious and wrong; persuasion and turnout are correlated, and campaigns that do well at persuasion also are better at turnout. Contrary to Bitecofer and now Bonica.
“(This is because persuasion and turnout are correlated; parties that do better at persuading people to vote for them also do better at persuading people to turn out to vote at all.)”
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-america-used-ranked-choice
this theory leaves no room for existing consultants to grift a giant slice of donations
they’d have to do something totally radical and unprecedented like… react to real events or give up on being center-right assholes trying to steer the left to the money trough, and that’s just not going to happen.
maybe if we select some consultants whose primary credentials are something other than hippie punching and AIPAC connections we might keep some of this blue wave energy into the next election
I don’t think that the biggest and best winners, the ones who flipped the seats and who threw the centrist Democrats out, really need consultants.