On Vibes and Economics

There has been yet another round of posts in the ‘is the dissatisfaction with the economy warranted or not?’: here are some interesting posts on the subject. As some asshole with a blog has noted, there are valid economic reasons for the Great Crankiness. But that said, does anyone think if Trump were convicted (or, frankly, shuffle off this mortal coil) that people would give more positive ratings to the economy?

Because I think Brian Beutler is correct here (boldface mine):

If you believe economic sentiment is a good proxy for the health of the economy—that material conditions drive sentiment more than vague, mediated impressions—this [89% of young voters think the economy is poor or fair] is a confounding result. The current recovery and economy are far better for young people than recent recoveries and economies have been, but youth sentiment is far worse than in the past, including among people who voted for Joe Biden. In fact, it’s dramatically worse among the young than among the cohort of people who are actually struggling in the economy (though of course there is overlap).

I promise you it is not the case that 89 percent of people under the age of 30 are struggling, and simply communicating their personal experiences to pollsters. That’d be a ludicrous, self-refuting conclusion to draw.

While Beutler argues that “media and groupthink explain the excess gloom” (and note, in the piece, he isn’t denying reasons for feeling some “excess gloom”), I think we need to realize there is, to use Beutler’s phrase, a gloom that isn’t strongly attached to most people’s lives for many reasons; people, often for valid reasons, are fearful right now and that colors their polling answers.

There is a Great Crankiness throughout the land.

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