Will the U.S. See Another COVID Surge Soon?

Based on these data, probably:


The one exception to this appears to be Denmark, which after a massive surge even by U.S. standards, continues to decline:


Throughout the pandemic, we’ve often lagged Europe by some number of weeks, so the first figure is… disconcerting.

In much of the U.S., masking seems to be over (thanks to assholes like this). As of the end of January, around 43 percent of U.S.-ians had been infected (many of whom also are now vaccinated too), so it’s not clear to me that, between vaccination–and with Omicron, vaccination should only include three doses or two doses plus previous infection–and previous infection, we’ve built up enough immunity. As we’ve let caution go to the wind, immunity is all we’ve got. The only bright point, if it can be called that, is that kids, who are a transmission vector, Emily Fucking Oster notwithstanding, about 58 percent of kids have been infected.

(Important caveat: ‘infected’ only means that a person has antibodies at a detectable level against the nucleocapsid protein. It does not necessary imply that someone is protected against Omicron infection).

So I’m left with wondering how we’re going to be different from much of Europe. I was expecting September to be bad, but maybe I was being to optimistic. Hopefully, I’m missing something obvious (at least in hindsight), and we won’t see another rise in cases.

And remember: the surefire way to not get long COVID is to not get COVID at all.

This entry was posted in COVID-19. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to Will the U.S. See Another COVID Surge Soon?

  1. Michael Finfer says:

    Waste water testing in the US is suggesting an increase already. I don’t know about September, but I am not longer optimistic about April and May.

Comments are closed.