The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Very Confused

D.C. is now recording self-reported at-home tests, but these don’t make it into the ‘top-line’ report. Using those numbers, obviously no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the moderate threshold the CDC uses (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):
table
Not including the self-reported tests, most wards in D.C. had large declines, with the exception of Ward 2 which had a thirty percent increase. The entire city had a 33% decline. But when we include the over 7,000 self-reported positives due to the back-to-school testing, that decline shrinks to nineteen percent. In addition, the self-reported positives aren’t broken out by ward, so we have no idea to which ward those tests belong. So it’s confusing.

What isn’t confusing is the tripling of COVID ICU patients since December 23, or the seventeen dead in the last week alone. The deaths and ICU patients are trends in the wrong direction, though expected given the high prevalence since early November.

Also, given the limited protection two doses provides against infection and that less than thirty percent of those with two doses have had a third dose, it’s likely that transmission will keep going for a while–and you really can protect yourself from infection* by getting the third dose (the booster) and wearing a good mask.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

*While there is a decline of the booster’s protection against infection, it is very high for the first month, and it declines to around sixty percent by two months. That won’t stop spread by itself, but it will help limit it, which we really need right now.

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1 Response to The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Very Confused

  1. Pingback: The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Declining from an Awful Peak | Mike the Mad Biologist

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