A Brief Note about Prevalence

Many moons ago, some asshole with a blog noted this about COVID prevalence:

When the virus is very rare, it means we can start to do normal-ish activities, since the odds of encountering an infected person are very rare (yes, this is obvious, but seems to have escaped many policy makers).

Bob Wachter, who is the Chair of the UCSF Department of Medicine posts (and discusses) the percentage of asymptomatic patients who show up to UCSF and test positive for COVID-19it’s very useful because it gives us a clue of what’s happening out there, even if it’s not perfect. Looking at his data for San Francisco and D.C.’s data, the optimistic estimate for D.C. is that two percent of people are currently infected. What that means is, unless you’re at an event where rapid testing is happening, the odds are very good at any non-small event that one or more people are infected. And yes, wearing masks and so on will help, but the best way to not get infected is to avoid infected people.

Just something to consider when making plans for the next couple of weeks.

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