The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Still F-cking Awful

In the last seven days, two percent of D.C. residents are to have contracted COVID-19. Before we get to that, obviously no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the moderate threshold the CDC uses (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 1.529% n/a 2.552% n/a
2 1.019% n/a 1.923% n/a
3 0.872% n/a 1.471% n/a
4 1.717% n/a 2.694% n/a
5 2.092% n/a 3.310% n/a
6 1.972% n/a 3.169% n/a
7 2.415% n/a 3.838% n/a
8 2.806% n/a 4.496% n/a
D.C. total 2.021% 17.9% 2.941% 13.4%

At this point, fifty new cases per 100,000 per day would be an improvement. Which also would be really bad. The ward data above for the one-week prevalence and one-week percent positive rates are only for the last six days due to data issues (but the D.C. total is from the last seven days), but even with that adjustment every ward still had a dramatic increase. Across the entire city, cases more than doubled–and last week was really bad too.

We haven’t seen this level of hospitalization (for COVID) since May 27, 2020. I’ll have more to say about this later in the week, but, right now, given the number of known cases, any gathering other than a small amount of people should be assumed to have (at least) one infected person. In addition, given the limited protection two doses provides against infection, it’s likely that transmission will keep going for a couple of weeks–and you really can protect yourself by getting the third dose (the booster).

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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