The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Getting Worse, and Relaxing Masking Can’t Help

But before we get to that (again), only Ward 3 is below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the moderate threshold the CDC uses (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.070% n/a 0.130% n/a
2 0.075% n/a 0.149% n/a
3 0.043% n/a 0.085% n/a
4 0.080% n/a 0.158% n/a
5 0.107% n/a 0.180% n/a
6 0.112% n/a 0.180% n/a
7 0.098% n/a 0.182% n/a
8 0.099% n/a 0.212% n/a
D.C. total 0.088% 1.6% 0.166% 1.4%

All wards, except for Wards 2, 4, and 8 had substantial increases (Wards 5 and 6 exploded, while Ward 8 declined), with new positives in the city increasing by fourteen percent. Percent positive rates in all wards remain good. For most of the week, vaccination among adults was higher than it has been, doubling to about 0.2% of that population per day. We had two deaths in the last week.

The big news this week is that Bowser has removed the masking requirement–which is so stupid even a member of D.C. Council, Robert White, who is running against Mayor Bowser, roused himself to oppose it (the Council’s position on most of Bowser’s COVID-19 policies could best be described as supine). As I noted yesterday, I really hope I’m wrong, but I think this could be really bad. We’re not vaccinated enough, given Delta’s R0 of 5: we need to be at around 80-85% of all people, not just adults, to break transmission chains via immunity. It’s obvious Bowser did this because she wants a ‘good’ holiday season–and she’s not concerned about long-COVID. There is no reason not to wait five or six weeks, especially so those in the ‘general’ population have time to get boosters and for the boosters to take effect (guess we’ll just have to hold our breaths for the next couple weeks).

If we have a bad December or January–and I hope I’m wrong–this is entirely of Bowser’s making.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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2 Responses to The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Getting Worse, and Relaxing Masking Can’t Help

  1. Joe Shelby says:

    as you used to say a year ago, “we are 4-6 weeks away from being in the safe place…and have been for months now”.

    very frustrating that Delta undid the progress made last summer (and pitting us back into the same partisan circles, where those of us masked and vaccinated were begging for boosters and vax’s for our kids, while the other side wanted to ignore it, and did, and September was September). now we’re going through it again.

    all the while wondering out much of the current spike is “cool temps” vs “natural immunity isn’t” vs “ok we may have a new strain going around, but nobody’s posting the details we need to know”.

    the latter is quite frustrating as we’re all trying to make christmas plans and hoping they don’t get canceled after we’ve already put money down. Again.

  2. AndrewJ says:

    What immunity? The vaccine doesn’t grant immunity, just a much reduced chance of sickness and death. The vaccinated spread the disease – if The Science is to be believed, nearly (though not quite!) as well as the unvaccinated do.

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