The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: A Good Decline (Maybe)

Or it could just be a reporting artifact due to the long weekend. Before we get to that, no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.125% n/a 0.306% n/a
2 0.091% n/a 0.208% n/a
3 0.065% n/a 0.139% n/a
4 0.113% n/a 0.280% n/a
5 0.186% n/a 0.438% n/a
6 0.140% n/a 0.358% n/a
7 0.258% n/a 0.584% n/a
8 0.295% n/a 0.678% n/a
D.C. total 0.159% 5.0% 0.372% 4.4%

The good news, if these data are not artifactual, is that every ward saw a dramatic decrease. We lack percent positive rates for each ward, however, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is still too high, meaning we’re underestimating cases.

We have had three deaths in the last week, but hospitalizations for COVID-19 have leveled off. Vaccination is back to a 0.1% increase per day for the entire population. To repeat myself ad nauseum, D.C. needs to limit certain indoor non-essential activities to the fully vaccinated because we do not have time to wait for people to reach the right decision since this rate of vaccination simply isn’t fast enough.

It remains to be seen what school re-opening will do, but as I noted yesterday, D.C.’s school testing is so sparse, we likely are missing many positives among students.

Even though some wards are doing really poorly on vaccination, such as Wards 7 and 8, it bears repeating that no wards are at eighty percent or higher fully vaccinated, even if we make some assumptions about how the ‘missing fully vaccinated’ are distributed. Mayor Bowser and the gormless Council need to fucking govern, and pass vaccination requirements.

None of this needed to happen.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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1 Response to The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: A Good Decline (Maybe)

  1. Joseph Shelby says:

    Virginia doesn’t report over the weekends anymore, so we are always seeing mild declines then huge spike, esp in Loudoun. The holiday split the spike over two days – some regions reported in on Monday and others didn’t.

    Very frustrating. When dealing with a pandemic’s spread, accuracy and timeliness of the data matters. Another of those lessons you’d think we’d learned by now, but far too many people are still living in the illusion that June was the end of it.

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