The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: A Massive Surge

And, unfortunately, it’s in COVID-19, not in vaccination. Before we get to that, no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.181% n/a 0.301% n/a
2 0.117% n/a 0.192% n/a
3 0.074% n/a 0.126% n/a
4 0.167% n/a 0.295% n/a
5 0.252% n/a 0.410% n/a
6 0.218% n/a 0.366% n/a
7 0.326% n/a 0.576% n/a
8 0.382% n/a 0.637% n/a
D.C. total 0.214% 4.0% 0.361% 3.6%

Every ward saw large increases, with a 45 percent increase city-wide. We also lack percent positive rates for each ward, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is still too high, meaning we’re underestimating cases.

We have had five deaths in the last week, but hospitalizations for COVID-19 have declined a bit (but I don’t know to what extent that’s ‘real’ versus stricter admissions due to limited resources). Vaccination is back to a 0.1% increase per day for the entire population. To repeat myself ad nauseum, D.C. needs to limit certain indoor non-essential activities to the fully vaccinated because we do not have time to wait for people to reach the right decision since this rate of vaccination simply isn’t fast enough.

As I discussed last week, I hope I’m wrong, but returning to school could lead to sky-high cases, hospitalizations, and even some deaths–yesterday’s reported death was a Black male aged 40-49. While everyone is understandably worried about children, the kids will kill their parents (and grandparents, though many of them are vaccinated, thankfully).

Even though some wards are doing really poorly on vaccination, such as Wards 7 and 8, it bears repeating that no wards are at eighty percent or higher fully vaccinated. Mayor Bowser and the gormless Council need to fucking govern, and pass vaccination requirements. As some asshole with a blog suggested:

If I were running the zoo, here’s what I would do:

  1. All city employees, unless they have a valid medical reason or can perform the entirety of their duties remotely, need to be vaccinated. This includes UDC.
  2. All non-essential ‘point of entry’ activities must require proof of vaccination. While some places might be easier to enforce than others (gyms would be pretty easy, clubs not so much), this will ‘encourage’ people, especially in the under 40 cohorts, who just aren’t getting vaccinated.
  3. Since I mentioned the social compact, every D.C. worker who was or would have been eligible for early access to a life-saving vaccine now must be vaccinated.
  4. All students twelve and older should be vaccinated, otherwise they will have remote learning.
  5. All parents and guardians of students must be vaccinated, otherwise they will have remote learning. This one is so obvious (and yet somehow Mayor Bowser is doing it completely wrong…). Kids will give it to each other, bring it home, and infect their parents.

For some of these, there will have to be a grace period or a requirement of ‘being in flight’ by a certain date.

But we need to do this, and it’s worth remembering our elected betters that these are politically popular in D.C. (if not Wor-Shing-Tun).

None of this needed to happen.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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