The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Getting Better, but Not Quite There

Some wards are, some wards aren’t. The entire city and all wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.002% n/a 0.012% n/a
2 0.001% n/a 0.001% n/a
3 0.004% n/a 0.005% n/a
4 0.005% n/a 0.013% n/a
5 0.012% n/a 0.031% n/a
6 0.012% n/a 0.022% n/a
7 0.017% n/a 0.028% n/a
8 0.022% n/a 0.067% n/a
D.C. total 0.010% 0.6% 0.023% 0.8%

The ‘good place’, which is one new case per 100,000 people per day, would be 0.007% in column two and 0.014% in column four. Wards 1-4 are doing well, and Wards 5 and 6 are close. Ward 8 did see a substantial drop in cases, while Wards 6 and 7 saw increases; however, because the city isn’t releasing total tests administered data, we don’t really have a context for these numbers. We finally had a week without any COVID-19 related deaths.

Now the question is if the city can get enough people vaccinated by late summer or early fall, when I think we’ll see a flare up of the Delta variant nationally. Currently, only about 61% of D.C. residents are partially or fully vaccinated, and that’s not enough. That is compounded further by large ward-level discrepancies.

So the next couple of months probably will be fine, but we really need to start preparing for the fall–and that preparation needs to include stronger vaccination efforts, including some sticks along with carrots.

Not angry, but I really don’t want to be getting angry again come September.

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1 Response to The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Getting Better, but Not Quite There

  1. Bern says:

    Also the question of tourism in DC. Will the great big crowds of old turn up this summer? If so, prepare early for Delta. But I am not so sure it will happen if only because what lotsa* people think DC is now is a great big hellhole of violence and tear gas.

    *Messa

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