Fast-Forward COVID-19 Punditry

While I realize pundits* have to come up with new things to say, or at least, new ways of saying the same old thing, watching the punditocracy race ahead of where many places actually are in terms of COVID-19 prevalence and vaccination is surreal. Some asshole with a blog noted this earlier this week:

In terms of vaccination, as of two weeks ago (remember, it takes about two weeks for the vaccine’s protection to kick in), 23.5% of D.C. residents were fully vaccinated, and 49.7% of D.C. residents had received at least one dose. We’re nowhere near done yet, but hopefully in a month or so, we’ll be in a good place regarding vaccination…

Yet reading the commentary, one would think we’re at sixty or seventy percent fully vaccinated (hint: we’re not). We will be eventually but not for a while.

Atrios sums up the consequences rather well:

When “everyone” but not everyone is vaccinated, there will be zero public restrictions or social restraints. And people will still be getting sick and dying. Probably more than a few. Maybe just “bad flu season” but… that’s not so good!

People point to the UK’s fast first dose vaccination, but there hasn’t been indoor dining in most of the country since November, and in none of it since around Xmas (even now).

One hundred COVID-10 deaths per day for one hundred days is equivalent to the annual death toll from gun violence**. I hope the death toll is lower than that due to vaccine uptake–and it could be if we pushed hard–but I think too many people, including even those in public health, are needlessly adjusting their expectations downwards too soon.

I’m going to be mad about all of this for a long time.

*not to mention assholes with blogs!

**This figure refers to violence. Gun suicides are about double that.

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