The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Still Rising

Even though vaccination is doing well. The entire city and all wards, with the exception of Ward 3, are still well above the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.094% 2.6% 0.156% 2.1%
2 0.054% 0.9% 0.149% 1.4%
3 0.039% 1.0% 0.089% 1.1%
4 0.087% 2.4% 0.166% 2.2%
5 0.148% 4.1% 0.291% 3.6%
6 0.096% 2.2% 0.195% 2.3%
7 0.204% 5.4% 0.362% 4.6%
8 0.217% 5.1% 0.420% 4.5%
D.C. total 0.116% 2.6% 0.227% 2.5%

The city as a whole had a small increase in prevalence, with Wards 1 and 7 seeing massive spikes, and Wards 4, 5, and 8 having smaller increases. Wards 2 and 3 saw large decreases, though Ward 3 was already low, so that did not offset the increases. Percent positive rates are high in Wards 4, 7, and 8, meaning the prevalence is likely higher there, while Ward 2 has an extremely low percent positive rate. R(t) wobbled around 1.0 for the week.

What is very discouraging is that deaths are still high, with 15 death in the last week. The deaths aren’t slowing down among those sixty and older, and there has been a slight increase among those aged 50-59. Wards 5-7 are the wards that are carrying this burden (no one died this week from COVID-19 in Wards 1-3 and 8). D.C. really needs to turn the death rate around: vaccinating more non-elderly people, especially those in their fifties, will be critical.

Speaking of vaccination, last week, the percentage of those eighteen and older who are partially vaccinated increased by 6.2% to 48.5%. Hopefully, we’ll be able to break a seven percent increase as the ‘general’ population that wants to be vaccinated continues to do so and D.C. residents continue to learn about other ways to get the vaccine out-of-state. As some asshole with a blog noted in December, the decision to vaccinate out of state employees who were not medical workers combined with the Trump and Biden administrations’ refusal to provide more vaccine continues to put D.C. about ten days behind other states in terms of vaccine coverage.

Considering D.C., like most state governments essentially has given up on methods other than vaccination to stop the spread of COVID-19, it’s really up to individuals to do what they can to protect themselves and others. Now, we just have to get more people vaccinated–and the federal government needs to stop sending so much vaccine to states that aren’t using those doses and to those regions that need them and can administer them (which includes D.C.).

That said, I’m hoping July will be alright, though we also will need to start vaccinating kids.

As usual, I’ll remind you that the good news is we still could be only around four to six weeks away–probably four now with vaccination–from returning to normal-ish, even though we intentionally remain four to six weeks away from safely returning to normal-ish because we’re unwilling to do what it takes to make that happen.

Anger isn’t the appropriate emotion, rage is.

It didn’t need to be like this.

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