One of the minor annoyances of the last four years (because we’ve had some very big annoyances recently) is the idea that Trump Changed Everything, when many of the same patterns just continued onward. As some asshole with a blog noted recently, fifteen percent of the country considers itself to be white evangelicals, but those same white evangelicals make up twenty eight percent of the electorate (and forty percent of the Republican electorate). That is, a white evangelical vote counts twice as much as everyone else’s. Put another way, everyone else’s vote only counts as 85% of a white evangelical’s (which I suppose is better than three-fifths).
This is nothing new, but professional Democrats have yet to mount an efficient counterstrategy. While winning some white evangelicals back wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, Democrats do have an opportunity among people who don’t vote–the Democratic leaners anyway. Because another way to look at everyone else’s vote counting as 85% is that everyone else (part of everyone else at least) is underrepresented.
I realize this is at best rephrasing the obvious, but it is important to recognize what the exact problem is. We need to find our voters and turn them out, and Democrats haven’t found a reliable way to do that.