On the whole. Wards 2, 4, and 8 are doing a little better, while Wards 3, 5, and 7 are doing worse. Overall, the prevalence in D.C. has increased:
|Ward||1-week prevalence||2-week prevalence||1-week % positive||2-week % positive|
Only Wards 1 – 3 would be above the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week (0.05% in the second column above); D.C. as a whole also exceeds the threshold. We’re slowly losing ground overall, and citywide the prevalence rate is about ten times higher than what would allow us to resume normal-ish activity. Really, the only good news is that we’re doing enough testing.
I’ll have more to say about D.C.’s ongoing failure to lower the curve on Wednesday, but it’s really unclear right now what the strategy is, other than hoping for the best–which isn’t a strategy at all. Since D.C.’s testing and tracing strategy doesn’t seem to be designed to understand spread, but to prevent further spread, we don’t know where how transmission is occurring, which is being used as an excuse to not shut down anything, even as prevalence is rising.
The shame of it all is that, if we went hard at this, we could be back to normal-ish by October easily. D.C.’s problem is that we are four weeks away from solving this–and we are always four weeks away because we aren’t willing to do the obvious things to crush the curve. And, as I’ll note on Wednesday, those who purport to lead us don’t know the right questions to ask.
Anger is still the appropriate emotion.