Why I’m Nervous about the 2020 Presidential Election: It’s the Map, Stupid

And if Oliver Willis stumbles across this, he might yell at me for being pessimistic. Onward comrades…

Leaving aside Biden’s flaws–and he still has them, but that’s preferable to a mass murderer–what worries me is the Electoral College. Consider this map, which seems a pretty reasonable estimate of where things currently stand:

Screen Shot 2020-08-06 at 3.44.37 PM

This map does not feel me with optimism. Other than Arizona, I find it hard to believe that Biden can win any of these states or the swing votes in Maine and Nebraska. And between mail-in voting, a lack of appeal to young voters, and Republican chicanery, Wisconsin seems optimistic. Losing all the ‘brown’ regions and Wisconsin yields a two vote Electoral College victory for Trump.

Yes, the polling suggests a Biden victory, but it also suggests a ten point win, and I don’t think that will hold (already, the political press corps is emphasizing Biden’s idiot eruptions–and we told you this would happen). Given the map, it’s very possible that Trump wins the electoral college, even as Biden gains an actual majority–not a plurality like Clinton, but a majority.

I’m willing to admit I’m completely reading the moment wrong, and that Biden can hold Wisconsin, and one or more of the ‘brown’ states. If Biden takes Georgia, then he’ll haven taken most or all of the swing states in a landslide. But the map combined with some gap-closing makes a victory really hard.

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7 Responses to Why I’m Nervous about the 2020 Presidential Election: It’s the Map, Stupid

  1. Constance Reader says:

    I’m not nervous because of any map, I’m nervous because there are still 2 1/2 months until the election and *anything* can happen (and in 2016, *anything* did). American voters are fickle, selfish, and many of them are frankly quite dumb – and consider their stupidity some kind of badge of honor. And part of being that dumb is not being able to grasp that what they call “America” can be ended, overnight, with the stroke of a pen. Or Sharpie, as the case may be.

  2. David says:

    Notice that all the brown states have republican governors, meaning that electoral procedures are under republican control. Purge a few voter registration lists, shut some polling places, encourage bugaloo bois to visit suspect polling places while heavily armed, and toss out a few bags of mail-in ballots – then he doesn’t even need the map. I’m also expecting that the “October surprise” will be more outrageous than anything I can anticipate. And, I can anticipate Trump arresting Biden, for the crimes committed in Obamagate. So he’ll top that.

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  4. I’m nervous, too. & Republicans cheat. Especially Trump.

  5. Obnubilation says:

    I’m amazed that you think any president is not a mass murderer. Was Clinton better than Bush. And who killed more with drones? Biden is more dangerous than you think and probably more than Trump. Didn’t Biden want to get rid of Social Security long before Trump? Either one is a disaster, but that’s the American way. We’ll kill everyone for profits.

  6. HawHaw says:

    I hope Trump wins. You Americans deserve him after what you did in the Middle East and Libya. You’re all a bunch of neoliberal mass murderers.

  7. Sandra says:

    Good idea to proof copy before posting. Multiple typos.

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