In no particular order, some thoughts about the legislative monstrosity the Republicans passed:

1. One critical thing to keep in mind is that, while some Republicans might not like certain provisions of the bill or find certain parts politically radioactive, on the whole they want this bill. They want the tax cuts for the wealthy, the mass deportation scheme (which will likely be repurposed as a mass incarceration scheme–postcards from the Gulag Archipelago), the massive cuts to social spending, and so on. Republicans want these things. The no votes in the Senate were ‘released’, and there’s no reason to think they would have voted against the bill if their votes had been needed. Murkowski is likely angry at Senators Paul and Tillis though because she wanted to be able to pretend she opposed the bill, and that get out of jail free card was spent on Collins, who is up for reelection in 2026.
2. Related to point #1, this is less an issue of knuckling under to Trump, though there is some of that, and more doing what Republicans have wanted to do for years. There are no moderate Republicans left. Not one.
3. Republican Daddy and Mommy will never save you.
4. I have doubts about the “it will be so bad, voters will revolt in 2026” strategy. Many things don’t kick in (or shut off) until 2027 or 2029, though there’s an argument to be made that Democrats can run on “vote for me or Medicaid dies in 2027.”
5. The mass deportation machinery will now be much stronger, though there will still be staffing issues. This is really bad.
6. In hindsight, between this bill and the incessant lawbreaking, the argument that a government shutdown would have been bad politics seems rather weak. It’s a lot harder to get to sixty votes for this crap in the Senate than it is fifty.
7. Really glad that several high profile Democrats spent the last week talking about Mamdani. Good job, you dumb motherfuckers.
8. All of this sucks, and anyone who voted for Trump or decided to sit the 2024 election out is garbage. This is all on you.
9. Happy Fucking Fourth of July.