I realize that down this road lies madness, but here we go:
- Anyone speaking with certainty about what to do is full of it. While this isn’t unprecedented (Reagan in 1984), it is very rare. Add to that, there are so many unknowns about how things will play out–and keep in mind, most of the pundits and politicians opining about this are not showing their work.
- After watching pundits and political journalists at the NYT misunderstand and misrepresent infectious disease biology for the last four years, I’m not really eager to read their opinions about geriatric medicine.
- Related to the previous point, I think what happened to Biden was a combination of mild illness (a cold), running Biden ragged (exhaustion), and really bad debate preparation with no plan for handling a Gish Gallop. But I could be wrong. And so could all of the opiners who claim this indicates a real mental decline.
- What is bizarre in all of this discussion is that Trump was unable to communicate basic concept–he couldn’t form complete sentences or express himself clearly. Yet, based on the pundit reaction, it’s as if Trump wasn’t even there. To rephrase this, both Biden and Trump failed their mental acuity checks.
- The fantasy of an open convention is just that: a fantasy. There is a real issue of what happens to the Biden-Harris campaign funds if either of them is not the nominee to start with, and I also have no idea if dumping Harris hurts Democrats with perhaps its strongest demographic: middle-aged Black women. The latter is definitely one of those unknowns I was referring to above.
- Regarding Harris, it’s not clear if she would improve things for several reasons. First, the ugly and brutal reality of U.S. politics in 2024, Year of Our Gritty, is that women always poll better–until they actually run for something. Second, she had some bad moments during her 2020 run; it’s not clear to me that she’s a great political talent (which unfortunately has little to do with her qualifications for being a good president). Third, if the Harris campaign uses most of the Biden staff, I don’t think things will change much. The failures of the Biden candidacy (not presidency) stem from both long-term strategic errors, such as the failure to demonize Trump or mismanaging the political press corps, and short-term tactical failures (slow response times to crises etc.). It’s unclear who would be running the Harris campaign, and I don’t see how one can estimate her odds without knowing that.
- Related to the above, Harris, if she had been advised by the same people, wouldn’t have performed well. The campaign advisors just are not very good.
- One reason media and political elites are panicking is because they, on the whole, haven’t experienced major professional setbacks–which is to say, getting really fucked, either by their own mistakes or by someone else. Most very successful people in professional terms haven’t faced much true adversity in their professional careers–that’s a critical part of being very successful!–so when things go off the rails, they panic. E.g., the NYT editorial board.
- I know I’m going to get people saying, “DIDN’T YOU SEE THE DEBATE?!?”, but it seems weird to call it a debate loss for Biden when he narrowed the gap afterwards. Maybe people watched the actively dementing Trump too? (I found the Bloomberg link on Bluesky and the Bloomberg staffer who posted it used the phrase “widely panned performance”–which is a huge fucking tell).
- Related to my first point about “not showing their work”, there are a lot of people who wanted Biden to not run again. They might be correct, but no one should act as if they are providing impartial analysis here.
- Being a D.C. native and current resident gives me a lot of experience with other people over whom I have no control whatsoever determining political outcomes that affect me. This is very useful right now. And it’s wrong of me, but I take a certain wicked glee in seeing Democratic-aligned elites being treated by Biden the same way they themselves treat the left wing of the Democratic Party.
In short, this is the only thing I can say with confidence: whomever the next candidate is, starting 4 days before the debate, everyone who comes into contact indoors with them should be wearing a fucking N95 mask. Everyone.
mikethemadbiologist
Thank you! I feel like they are gaslighting us. It was not a good showing, but the idea that Biden is suddenly senile makes no sense given the content that I heard at the time.
NOTE: I was in the middle of moving that day (I moved the next day) – so I was busy packing. I didn’t WATCH the debate, I listened only. That may have had an influence on my interpretation.
My response to the “did you see the debate?” crowd is “did you read the transcript?”
To which I would add, “Doesn’t anyone recall how bad Biden’s debate performances were in 2020?” There’s a reason he dragged in the primaries for so long.
As an OLD person myself, I can sympathize with Biden bigly. And depending on what meds they gave him for the cold, I can easily understand how he felt. My last cold, back last winter, laid me up for a week, and it was 10 days before I felt human again. And it isn’t my age – I have always reacted to cold viruses this way. His debate team should have also been prepared for the Gish Gallop – wingers have been using this tactic since Creationism became a thing 50 years ago, which is why many scientists have refused to debate talibangelicals on many occasions. There are techniques for combatting this winger tactic, but evidently they had never heard of them…and here we are.
What I think it proves more than anything is that the Overton window has completely shifted on our democracy. Don’t like the results of the Democratic primaries any more? Get your rich friends to pledge to stop donating and overturn thee whole process! Whisper secrets to reporters and the press will be on your side for the scoops!
If Biden is replaced, it won’t be through anything a democratic process where ordinary voters have any voice. Why is that ok to even consider?
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