What Percentage of Winter Surge Qualifies as ‘Bad’?

While the D.C. wastewater data for the week of August 16 aren’t available yet*, the data for Alexandria, VA, which have mostly mirrored D.C., are out, and they’re not good:

Screenshot 2023-08-23 at 8.37.59 AM

The concentration is 946 copies/ml, which is 76.5% of the highest value for the Jan. 2023 peak (1,306 copies/ml). We likely won’t see massive mortality as a result, but it does seem likely that we’ll see a surge in infections–and thus more people will contract long COVID, including the vaccinated. dmittedly, there are issues with wastewater data, but, in terms of prevalence, it’s really all we have at this point.

What I don’t understand is the lack of recognition (though some organizations, such as Lionsgate Films are now mandating masks) of the problem. I hope there’s a decline soon, but I can’t see anything**, other than dumb luck, leading to a decline over the next few weeks.

The legacy media keep talking about a winter surge, but, in D.C., given the existing data, we should be worried about a late September/October surge–if not right now.

At what point do we say it’s bad? 85% of the maximum of the January 2023 winter surge? 95%?

Anyway, stay safe out there.

*The FDA has been funding some wastewater surveillance efforts, and that ended this week. I hope that’s not the source of D.C.’s wastewater surveillance, and there’s just a data transmission or analysis issue.

**I don’t think we’re close to enough people having been infected yet to confer temporary herd immunity, and, with people returning to school, and no recognition that precautions are needed, I just can’t see what would cause a decline.

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