According to the recent DC Public Schools (DCPS) back-to-school antigen testing. Based on the most recent DCPS testathon data that occurred earlier this week, 0.3% of students and 0.4% of staff tested positive for COVID. Students were lower, but this is a significant drop for staff compared to the late February data (from 1.0% to 0.4%).

That said, there are a bunch of caveats:

1. Many staff and students did not report test results.
2. Related to the previous point, we have no idea if the ‘missing’ staff and students are more or less likely to test positive (one could make arguments either way).
3. We also don’t know how many of those who tested positive would have attended school. If someone ‘feels better’ than they did several days ago, would they have ‘toughed it out’ were it not for the positive result?
4. Antigen tests typically have a window of 12-36 hours in which viral load is high (even with Omicron), but the test is negative, so there are probably some ‘stealth positives.’

Given these caveats, I would argue that probably 0.5%-0.75% of people are infected. Regarding safety, in large, indoor gatherings, someone likely will be COVID positive, so please wear a mask indoors in public places. This protects against multiple diseases, not just COVID. It is not like getting waterboarded, it’s just a mask. You can do this! I believe in you!