The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Another Big Decline, but Still Not Close

Before we get to that, no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the moderate threshold the CDC uses (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.103% n/a 0.378% n/a
2 0.265% n/a 0.642% n/a
3 0.155% n/a 0.391% n/a
4 0.223% n/a 0.507% n/a
5 0.270% n/a 0.574% n/a
6 0.150% n/a 0.495% n/a
7 0.153% n/a 0.378% n/a
8 0.041% n/a 0.318% n/a
D.C. total 0.182% 3.0% 0.491% 3.2%

All wards had large declines in new cases, with the entire city decreasing by 41 percent, though the Ward 1 and Ward 8 data are suspect, as they ‘lost’ between them 155 cases yesterday. Also worth noting that Georgetown University by itself accounts for about half of all Ward 2 positives (add in GWU, and the ‘townies’ are doing relatively well). Self-reported tests are declining too, but we’re seeing an uptick in DCPS student cases. The percent positive rate is somewhat higher than one would like too.

ICU cases, while still high, are declining, but deaths have increased to fourteen in the last week (the weekend was especially lethal). The biggest threat to continuing to lower the prevalence are Thinky Thought Leaders and Substack Bois who have decided They Are Done With Covid™. Not only are they dopes who are too damn impatient (it’s one thing to fail the marshmallow test, it’s another to eat the whole fucking bag) while styling themselves Serious Quantative Thinkers even as they offer no guidelines at all, but they also fail to grasp that we have to view our current situation as akin to managing a chronic disease. Saying COVID is over in the face of high prevalence is very dangerous and counterproductive.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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