The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Still Getting Worse

But the rate at which it gets worse is slowing, so we got that going for us, I guess. Before we get to that, no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.151% n/a 0.269% n/a
2 0.077% n/a 0.163% n/a
3 0.067% n/a 0.109% n/a
4 0.145% n/a 0.257% n/a
5 0.158% n/a 0.302% n/a
6 0.135% n/a 0.272% n/a
7 0.252% n/a 0.450% n/a
8 0.277% n/a 0.477% n/a
D.C. Total 0.156% 4.5% 0.285% 4.2%

The entire city didn’t get below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week, and had a 21% increase in new cases in the last week. Except for Ward 2, which had a decrease, and Ward 6 which stayed constant, every other ward saw large increases this week. We also lack percent positive rates for each ward, so there’s no context for these numbers. City-wide, the percent positive rate is too high, and climbing.

We have had two deaths in the last week, and hospitalizations for COVID-19 are up 64% in the last week. While vaccination has doubled, perhaps due to D.C.’s government worker mandates (and perhaps looming federal worker mandates too), 0.2% per day still means it will take months to get to 80% of all people fully vaccinated–and that might not be enough. As I keep saying every week, D.C. needs to limit certain indoor non-essential activities to the fully vaccinated because we do not have time to wait for people to reach the right decision. Push them.

Kids, including the unvaccinated ones, haven’t even started to return to school yet, and COVID-19 is already surging (next week, I hope to look at some modelling about school reopening from North Carolina, and what that might mean for COVID-19 in D.C.).

None of this needed to happen.

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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