The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: It Got Worse. BIGLY.

The entire city and all wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.016% n/a 0.027% n/a
2 0.008% n/a 0.013% n/a
3 0.008% n/a 0.018% n/a
4 0.003% n/a 0.008% n/a
5 0.019% n/a 0.031% n/a
6 0.024% n/a 0.036% n/a
7 0.023% n/a 0.035% n/a
8 0.022% n/a 0.032% n/a
Unknown 0.017% 1.5% 0.026% 1.0%

The ‘good place’, which is one new case per 100,000 people per day, would be 0.007% in column two and 0.014% in column four. D.C., as a whole, isn’t there yet. At the ward level, only Ward 4 is at the good place. While Wards 3 and 4 saw large declines in prevalence, the other wards had anywhere from 40% increases to 225% increases. The prevalence of COVID-19 for D.C. as a whole increased seventy–not seventeen–seventy percent.

While some of that could be due to low testing before the July 4th holiday, it’s still not good–and it seems to be hitting most wards. We also lack percent positive rates for each ward, so there’s no context for these numbers. If these increases keep happening, we’re really going to wish we had better data. D.C. also had two deaths in the last week–since D.C. isn’t recording vaccination status, we have no idea what happened (one person was aged 60-69 and another 70-79).

On the vaccination front, we’re still going too slow, with all of the numbers (partially + fully vaccinated, fully vaccinated) only increasing by about 0.7% per week. At this rate to hit, eighty percent of all people partially or fully vaccinated, that will take many months. And, of course, the massive disparities east of the river remain.

The thing about exponential growth processes, as I’ve noted throughout this godawful shitty mess, is that they creep up on you. The next month won’t seem bad, but if the city doesn’t start ‘strongly encouraging’ residents and employees to vaccinate, late summer or early fall will get bad.

Anger is the appropriate emotion.

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