The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: Another Awful Week

I suppose if there’s any silver lining to this very dark cloud, it’s that this week wasn’t worse than last week–except for the deaths which creeped up (18 this week, 17 last week). The entire city and all wards, including the ‘low prevalence bastions’ of Ward 2 and 3, are now well above the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week (0.05% in the second column below):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.228% 3.6% 0.440% 3.7%
2 0.112% 1.8% 0.265% 2.1%
3 0.114% 2.4% 0.230% 1.9%
4 0.285% 5.3% 0.541% 5.3%
5 0.255% 4.9% 0.538% 5.2%
6 0.239% 3.4% 0.498% 3.4%
7 0.340% 7.3% 0.661% 7.8%
8 0.365% 7.8% 0.610% 7.0%
D.C. total 0.242% 4.0% 0.478% 3.9%

For context, in column two, the ‘good place’, which is one new case per 100,000 people per day, is 0.007%.

Most wards remained the same, with Ward 2 seeing a significant decrease, and Ward 8 having a dramatic increase. One very disconcerting note is that the percent positive rate is really too high in all wards other than Wards 2 and 3, and is bad in Wards 4, 5, 7, and 8, meaning we probably are undercounting many cases in those wards.

Unfortunately, we had very unseasonably warm weather this weekend, so lots of people who don’t live in the same household decided to sit three to four feet apart, and breathe at each other (also known as ‘dining’), so there’s a good chance, even as additional restrictions on restaurants kick in and colder, crappier weather arrives, we’ll see a surge at the end of this week. Barring a miracle, we’ll also blow past 718 deaths this week, so D.C. will become a member of the 1/1,000 residents are dead club.

Without the appropriate economic backstop for people and businesses, we’re left with hoping for crappy weather and that people won’t travel–in a city where one of business sectors, Official Wor-Shing-Tun, will have a huge migration of people in early January that won’t stop for a month.

The American Carnage will continue.

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