I just realized this post that was supposed to come out Monday, obviously didn’t. Oops.
Across the city as a whole, D.C.’s new cases increased by twenty percent this week, and the city exceeded the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week (0.05% in the second column below):
| Ward | one week prevalence | one week % positve | two week prevalence | two week % positve |
| 1 | 0.043% | 1.2% | 0.085% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 0.046% | 1.1% | 0.090% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 0.043% | 1.5% | 0.067% | 1.3% |
| 4 | 0.060% | 2.5% | 0.103% | 2.2% |
| 5 | 0.082% | 2.9% | 0.149% | 2.9% |
| 6 | 0.040% | 1.0% | 0.073% | 1.0% |
| 7 | 0.048% | 2.3% | 0.086% | 2.5% |
| 8 | 0.041% | 1.7% | 0.101% | 2.4% |
| D.C. total | 0.051% | 1.5% | 0.094% | 1.5% |
Wards 5 and 8 had large drops, but that was more than offset by increases in Wards 2-4, 6, and 7. Ward 3 nearly doubled its one week prevalence, and Ward 7 also increased by a large amount. For reference, in the above table, a one-week prevalence of 0.007% and a two-week prevalence of 0.014% would be equal to a daily new case rate of 1 per 100,000 people, which is a prevalence where we can return to normal-ish activities.
Cases are rising (and the deaths will come in a few weeks), and I don’t have a clue what the city’s plan is to halt this increase–though there’s only so much the city can do. More of the same clearly isn’t working, but I’m not seeing any other moves being made.
Anger is still the appropriate emotion.
mikethemadbiologist