I’m not sure why people are shocked by last night’s results; it wasn’t that surprising:
- As I laid out here, Iowa had a much higher percentage of 18-29 voters than did New Hampshire, probably because the calendar, combined with the time involved in caucusing, meant that students home on break would be able to attend between 6-10 pm on a work night.
- What is interesting in that NH had more late breaking voters than Iowa. In Iowa, the late breakers went for Edwards and Clinton, while in NH, they split between Clinton and Obama.
- The most surprising thing is that, looking at the exit polls for Iowa and NH, it really seems that Clinton and Edwards were competing for the same electorate. The storyline was that Edwards and Obama were duking it out for the “change” vote. Not so much. Sadly, we might not be so post-racist after all. If you prefer a less cynical speculation, voters might actually want candidates to talk about things other than ‘hope’, like healthcare.
- Another factor to consider: angry women and the Tweety effect which I raised weeks ago*.
*I don’t mean to be piqueish, but I did notice this before most others did.