I’m writing something about Mayor Bowser and her philosophy on combating crime, but in the interim, I looked at the number of crimes from Aug. 11 to Aug. 31, and an equal period of time immediately before Aug. 11* (if you want to look at the data, the MPD has a very good GUI here). Some quick observations (in part to organize my own thoughts):

1. Homicides have dropped (7 versus 5). That said, homicides increased in Ward 7 and decreased in Ward 8 since the occupation began; in both wards, there has been relatively less of a federal presence.
2. Citywide, there has been a large drop in violent robberies (72 versus 52).
3. Citywide, assaults with a dangerous weapon also have dropped (62 versus 53).
4. Citywide, theft from auto has dropped BIGLY (453 versus 290). Theft of auto has massively dropped from (288 versus 176).
5. Citywide, “Theft/Other” also has declined from 880 to 754.
6. Citywide, burglaries dropped from 47 to 39.
7. I don’t think too much should be made of this yet, but the first half of the occupation had fewer total violent crimes (44) than the second half (68); based on the ‘adjacent’ period, we would expect ~70 violent crimes during that time frame. One wonders if criminals are learning how to work around the occupying internal security forces.
8. Wards 1 and 2, where there has been a large federal presence had big declines in #2-#5, but Ward 6, which includes Capitol Hill and Union Station, and which has had a very noticeable federal presence, has had very limited declines. In fact, motor vehicle theft and “theft/other” increased.

The last point is interesting because a disproportionate number of the chattering class spend their time in a place where crime hasn’t been that affected by the occupation. Maybe David Brooks needs to kill moe?

Anyway, if this is what a massive federal build up does to ‘fight crime’–no, I’m not stupid, and I realize crime reduction isn’t the goal for Trump–it’s very mixed, and it’s not entirely clear to what extent the occupation affects crime, especially homicides.

*One also could compare it to the same time last year or come up with more sophisticated estimates of the expected number of crimes, based on a combination of this year’s crime to date combined with ‘seasonal’ effects, but you get what you pay for.