The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: 1.9% of D.C. Was Infected in the Last Week

Which is a slight improvement, though a fresh shit sandwich is still a shit sandwich. Before we get to that, obviously no wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the moderate threshold the CDC uses (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):


Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 1.515% n/a 3.176% n/a
2 0.907% n/a 1.992% n/a
3 1.004% n/a 1.982% n/a
4 2.165% n/a 4.040% n/a
5 2.122% n/a 4.466% n/a
6 1.830% n/a 3.997% n/a
7 2.647% n/a 5.364% n/a
8 2.858% n/a 6.038% n/a
D.C. total 1.875% 27.7% 3.881% 20.2%

Ward 4 saw an increase, but other wards had prevalence declines. Across the entire city, cases dropped by seven percent, though the prevalence is so high, your risk really hasn’t dropped. If we use the two-week prevalence as a rough proxy for infectious people (and based on San Francisco asymptomatic hospital in-patients, I think that’s a reasonable estimate), a group of ten people has a one-in-three chance of having one or more infected people in it. Of course, who the hell knows what Christmas did in terms of the data and testing.

Tomorrow’s (or maybe Thursday’s?–not sure if or when these data will be released) semi/sort of mandatory testing of students to return to school will be very interesting, in a NASCAR flaming pile-up kind of way. In other cheery news, COVID ICU patients have doubled in the last week, and ten people have died.

Also, given the limited protection two doses provides against infection, it’s likely that transmission will keep going for a couple of weeks–and you really can protect yourself by getting the third dose (the booster).

Rage is the appropriate emotion.

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1 Response to The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: 1.9% of D.C. Was Infected in the Last Week

  1. Pingback: Some Quick Thoughts on D.C.’s Back to School Testing Data | Mike the Mad Biologist

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