The State of COVID-19 in D.C.: No Real Change

The entire city and all wards are below the German rollback threshold of 50 new cases per 100,000 per week–which also is the threshold the CDC suggests schools for all grades can reopen (0.05% in the second column below; n/a is not available):

Ward one-week prevalence one-week % pos. two-week prevalence two-week % pos.
1 0.012% n/a 0.015% n/a
2 0.003% n/a 0.012% n/a
3 0.012% n/a 0.014% n/a
4 0.007% n/a 0.008% n/a
5 0.013% n/a 0.030% n/a
6 0.013% n/a 0.022% n/a
7 0.007% n/a 0.025% n/a
8 0.009% n/a 0.026% n/a
D.C. total 0.009% 0.8% 0.019% 0.7%

(note that the percent positive rates are for 6 and 13 days respectively due to data issues)
The ‘good place’, which is one new case per 100,000 people per day, would be 0.007% in column two and 0.014% in column four. D.C., as a whole, isn’t there yet. At the ward level, only Wards 2, 4, and 7 are at the good place. Wards 2, 5, 7, and 8 had declines, but Wards 1, 3, 4, and 6 increased. Ward 3, in particular, is worth keeping an eye on. These data don’t include any Fourth of July ‘surge’ effects either.

We also lack percent positive rates for each ward, so there’s no context for these numbers. Right now, it’s not a problem, but if we have a September/October surge due to inadequate vaccination, it’s not clear if the city’s reporting mechanisms can ‘snap back’, so we’ll know if (or when…) there’s a problem.

Speaking of vaccination, as some asshole with a blog noted yesterday, while D.C. is doing better than many states, we’re not doing well enough–COVID-19 doesn’t grade on a curve. We need to pick up vaccination, and soon.

The next month or so probably will be fine, but we really need to start preparing for the fall–and that preparation needs to include stronger vaccination efforts, including some sticks along with carrots.

Not angry, but I really don’t want to be getting angry again come September.

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