Most days when I post my daily roundup I refer to “the good place”, which is a daily new case rate of 1 case per 100,000 people, which in D.C. would be seven cases per day, or fifty cases per week. Seems I’m not the only one who wants to get to that point and thinks we can (boldface mine):
If you look at Taiwan or New Zealand, or even Italy, eight, 10, 12 weeks of really serious pain — limiting social activities, limiting groups — you get the number of new cases a day down to one per 100,000. In the United States, that means 3,000 new cases [or] 2,000 new cases a day, down from what we’re doing at 60,000. Then we can be a lot more free and open. The chance of spreading is low. Schools can open. Lots of things happen when you’re about 3,000 cases [a day], as opposed to 60,000 or 40,000 cases a day.
Where I disagree with Ezekiel Emmanuel is this notion of pain. If we had the necessary economic policies, it wouldn’t be that painful. And, for most parts of the country, at this point, we don’t need three months of shutdown. Many places could get there in four to six weeks, two months tops*.
As I keep saying, we are four to six weeks away from returning to normal-ish (though if cases keep climbing, it will be more like six to eight weeks), but we remain four to six weeks away because we refuse to do what needs to be done.
Anger is still the appropriate emotion.
*If we can lower Rt to 0.7 and we assume an incubation period of five days, six weeks could lower the prevalence 17-fold, and two months could lower prevalence more than 70-fold.