The Other Reason I Think Nate Silver Is Overestimating Obama’s Chances

Even if his models are correct (and remember that Chuck Todd also catapulted to fame by having a near flawless record), there’s something else the models don’t account for: people who want to vote but have been disenfranchised by Republican chicanery. In Pennsylvania, a ruling on Wednesday makes it far more likely that thousands of likely Democratic voters will be disqualified from voting due to Republican-backed changes in voter id requirements (that solve the non-problem of voter fraud).

Meanwhile, in the battleground state of Ohio, we hear of this development:

If you live in Butler or Warren counties in the Republican-leaning suburbs of Cincinnati, you can vote for president beginning in October by going to a polling place in the evening or on weekends. Republican officials in those counties want to make it convenient for their residents to vote early and avoid long lines on Election Day.

But, if you live in Cincinnati, you’re out of luck. Republicans on the county election board are planning to end early voting in the city promptly at 5 p.m., and ban it completely on weekends, according to The Cincinnati Enquirer. The convenience, in other words, will not be extended to the city’s working people.

The sleazy politics behind the disparity is obvious. Hamilton County, which contains Cincinnati, is largely Democratic and voted solidly for Barack Obama in 2008. So did the other urban areas of Cleveland, Columbus and Akron, where Republicans, with the assistance of the Ohio secretary of state, Jon Husted, have already eliminated the extended hours for early voting.

By the way, they are totally not racist:

Cincinnati, for example, is 45 percent black, and Cleveland 53 percent. Butler County, however, is 8 percent black, and Warren 3.5 percent. This kind of racial disparity is clearly visible wherever Republicans have trampled on voting rights during Mr. Obama’s term.

They don’t hate black people, they just want to make sure they can’t vote. For their own good. Or something.

An aside: If Biden or Obama could figure out a way to ask Romney/Ryan during a debate if they think Republican districts should have longer hours, that would help a lot. People don’t like cheaters.

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3 Responses to The Other Reason I Think Nate Silver Is Overestimating Obama’s Chances

  1. Chemjobber says:

    I sense that you’re not confident in President Obama’s chances. Interested in a small wager? (<$20)? I bet he wins both the popular and electoral college votes.

  2. chris says:

    Wonkette has been on a tear this morning… apparently the Ohio Sec of State has reversed his position and made it equally inconvenient for everyone to vote early. http://wonkette.com/481242/ohio-secretary-of-state-gives-equal-crappier-voting-opportunities-to-all

    So, hooray?

    Also, too: http://wonkette.com/481214/kentucky-gop-outraged-colleges-want-students-to-know-things

    Kentucky wants the testing body that compares student readiness for college to remove the section that requires students to know anything about evolution, because shut up, that’s why.

  3. JohnV says:

    There’s lots of things I’d love to hear asked in debates, I guess we can add this to the list? I’d love to hear Ryan asked if the tea baggers who said “keep your government hands off my medicare” should vote for Romney or Obama.

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