But Obama supporters should keep something in mind that Jon Swift wrote:
The biggest loser of all was Hillary Clinton. If she can’t win in Iowa, where can she win? In every contested race since 1972 (Bill Clinton ran unopposed in 1996), the winner of the Iowa caucuses for the Democrats has gone on to be elected President, except for 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004 when the winner did not go on to be elected President. Iowans have an uncanny ability to predict which Democrat can win in the general election, which means Hillary’s campaign may be doomed.
Snark aside, I wonder if the high young voter turnout had to do with the caucuses being held during colleges’ winter break. It will be interesting to see if this holds up. If it does, I’ll back Obama because a higher-than-usual turnout of young voters will crush congressional (House, not Senate) and state legislative Republicans.
Part of that effect from college students deppends on where they are registered to vote. And New Hampshire may well prove to have an opposite effect, since I suspect that a much higher percentage of college students in NH are non-residents of the state compared to Iowa.
The only two Democrats elected to the presidency since 1972 are Jimmy Carter (which Swift lists the 1976 election as an exception) and Bill Clinton. This uncanny ability of the Iowa caucus to predict a Democratic president is based on one election! I would hardly call that uncanny. But, I would call it pretty meaningless.
Billy, I think what you said was the point of Jon Swift’s comments. He just said it better than you because he’s funny as hell.
Billy Taylor’s right. Kristen, if that was point of Jon Swift’s post, why didn’t he just say so? Why all the round-about wordiness? We need more plain-spoken people who speak plainly and put things in simple terms that anyone can understand. The world is too complex as it is, and I think we should simplify it. I certainly would never write anything that is the opposite of my literal meaning in order to cleverly ridicule people with whom I disagree. Anyway, everyone’s entitled to their own opinion, right? I think that’s in the Constitution.
Also, have you ever eaten an Irish baby? I think that’s wrong. Someone should write something about eating Irish babies.
It will be interesting to see if this holds up. If it does, I’ll back Obama because a higher-than-usual turnout of young voters will crush congressional (House, not Senate) and state legislative Republicans.
He keep saying it’s time for a change. Maybe this will be the catalyst that brings it about?
Dave Briggs :~)
Folks, seriously. His pseudonym is Jon Swift. As in “A Modest Proposal”?
To quote one of my favourite lines from The Tick‘s animated series: “READ A BOOK!”