Mike the Mad Biologist

I realize that’s not a novel observation, but I was comparing the D.C. crime data for the year to date (Jan. 1, 2024 to Mar. 17, 2024) to the previous identical time period*, and I saw just how overwhelming the role of guns in determining the homicide rate is:

The top line is total homicides, the next line down is homicides with a gun, and the bottom line is homicides without guns. It’s all about guns. Every homicide surge is a homicide with a gun surge, and every homicide decline is a decline in gun homicides, while the baseline of non-gun homicides is fairly static**.

Like I said at the outset, this is not a novel finding (to say the least), but the data are just so fucking stark, I think they’re worth displaying. With a competent executive branch (not to mention if it were entirely under the control of the residents of the mainland colony), there would be some obvious policy remedies and policing strategies.

That said, despite Washington Post editorials, there is good news. For the year to date (Jan. 1, 2024 to Mar. 17, 2024), homicides have declined from 46 to 30. Gun homicides declined from 34 to 25, while non-gun homicides declined from twelve to five. Hopefully, that 27 percent decrease in gun homicides will increase, and this year will be less of an annus horribilis.

*Yes, I need new hobbies.

**There is a slight positive correlation between homicides with and without guns, but the relationship is so weak that the 95% confidence intervals cover everything from a horrible year to a great one. To put this perspective, in 2012, the year with the fewest homicides, there were 32 non-gun homicides. The following years had 32 or fewer non-gun homicides (without gun/with gun): 2012 (32/95), 2013 (22/81), 2016 (30/105), 2017 (28/87), 2020 (28/169), and 2022 (29/174).