Over the weekend, HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy wrote an op-ed suggesting that parents vaccinate their kids with the MMR vaccine, and has widely been seen as a change of heart. But if you have been following anti-vaxxers for a long time, the op-ed is full of dog whistles.

It is clear Kennedy was forced into writing this by the Trump administration: one dead child from measles can be explained away as an unfortunate, freak tragedy, but multiple dead kids are a pattern. That said, the op-ed is full of dog whistles for anti-vaxxers, and it’s shown by the structure.

You’ll note that he describes the frequency of measles deaths in the op-ed:

Prior to the introduction of the vaccine in the 1960s, virtually every child in the United States contracted measles. For example, in the United States, from 1953 to 1962, on average there were 530,217 confirmed cases and 440 deaths, a case fatality rate of 1 in 1,205 cases.

This followed by a description which includes vaccinated people who contracted the measles:

The current Texas outbreak has predominantly affected children, with 116 of the 146 cases occurring in individuals under 18 years of age. The DSHS reports that 79 of the confirmed cases involved individuals who had not received the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, while 62 cases had unknown vaccine status. At least five had received an MMR vaccine.

This, of course, isn’t shocking: 5/146 vaccinated people getting breakthrough measles infections is no different than the expected 97% efficacy.

After some boilerplate about working with state and local officials, we get to this old anti-vaxxer bromide of how measles infections are caused by poor diet, specifically vitamin A deficiency, and can be mitigated with vitamin A supplementation:

It is also our responsibility to provide up-to-date guidance on available therapeutic medications. While there is no approved antiviral for those who may be infected, CDC has recently updated their recommendation supporting administration of vitamin A under the supervision of a physician for those with mild, moderate, and severe infection. Studies have found that vitamin A can dramatically reduce measles mortality…

Tens of thousands died with, or of, measles annually in 19th Century America. By 1960 — before the vaccine’s introduction — improvements in sanitation and nutrition had eliminated 98% of measles deaths. Good nutrition remains a best defense against most chronic and infectious illnesses. Vitamins A, C, and D, and foods rich in vitamins B12, C, and E should be part of a balanced diet.

This is based on studies that do show that kids who don’t get enough vitamin A in their diets can suffer from more serious measles infections, but it does not mean giving kids additional vitamin A will be helpful (in fact, too much vitamin A can be very dangerous). Kennedy then concludes with “The decision to vaccinate is a personal one.”

To those who haven’t followed anti-vaxxers for years (unlike you dear reader, I have sucky hobbies…), the article seems like a reasonable endorsement of vaccination. To an anti-vaxxer though, it, in a watered-down form, replicates the following argument:

1. Measles is very rare.
2. The measles vaccine does not provide perfect protection, so why risk a dangerous shot.
3. The kids who die had other pre-existing conditions–note the “Ten of thousands died with, or of, measles” phrasing. It’s the same bullshit we heard during the pandemic: did they die with COVID or from it?
4. Vitamin A supplementation will stop the measles, not a dangerous shot.

A final point: nowhere does he explicitly say vaccination is safe. It’s not in there; the op-ed does say, “This includes ensuring that accurate information about vaccine safety and efficacy is disseminated”, but it doesn’t say what that accurate information actually is.

In other words, this article is what happens when an anti-vaxxer is forced to write an op-ed that sort of calls for MMR vaccination. Yes, it sounds reasonable to people who would vaccinate anyway, but it’s so laden with anti-vaxxer dog whistles that it likely won’t change their minds–and Kennedy doesn’t need to convince members of the American Society of Microbiologists or the Infectious Disease Society of America to vaccinate kids. That said, if there is any good news, it is that anti-vaxxers are not happy with his statement–though that’s largely the result of being delusional: there was no conceivable way for him to say what he has been saying for years at this time (the more clever ones are reading between the lines).

My concern is that many pundits, echoing the pattern we saw for far too long with the extremist right, will believe that Kennedy is turning over a new leaf, when he hasn’t.