Some thoughts and predictions about today’s U.S. elections:
- I’m guessing Democrats will hold the Senate but lose the House and be in the minority (in the House) by around ten seats (i.e., Republican seats minus Democratic seats equals five to ten).
- That said, of course it’s possible the polling is wrong across the board in one direction or another, but I would be surprised if Democrats either held the House or if they, when it’s all said and done, had over twenty fewer seats than Republicans.
- If Republicans take the House, the next two years are going to be a shit show. Republicans probably will try to investigate and impeach dead Democrats. A key professional Democratic failure was the inability to explain to low attachment voters who want ‘common sense’ that a Republican-controlled House will make things worse in terms of compromise–a party that includes Joe Manchin and Bernie Sanders is the compromising party.
- Centrist ideologues likely will blame ‘defund the police’, but they really need to look at NYC Mayor Adams who helped get the ‘Democrats are weak on crime’ crapola off the ground. Related to this, there are always going to be activists who say shit you don’t like–Republicans have this too. But somehow it’s always a drag on Democratic prospects (and electoral outcomes), but never Republican ones. It’s also hilarious in a dark way how those with no power in the party will be blamed for its failures, though if there’s one thing professional Democrats are good at, it’s blaming someone else.
- The current Democratic leadership needs to be moved on. That’s not really even about policy (though there are policy issues), but long-term strategy and short-term tactics. There’s just a lot of incompetency, and doing the same thing we’ve done for the last thirty years isn’t going to cut it.